Friday, 24 December 2010

Jaws: A movie review


Synopsis

A group of so-called government funded "experts" whip up alarmist fears of a killer shark off the coast of Amity, a sea side town. Their goal is to destroy the local tourist industry, send Amity back to the dark ages and thus achieve their underlying socialist agenda of wealth redistribution. The heroes of this tale are the local major and business leaders who lead a successful audit of the alarmist claims and by doing so manage to delay action long enough that the beach remains open. In the end it turns out a shark has been eating people.

Plot

It all starts when a body washes up on a beach. Of course bodies wash up on beaches all the time in natural cycles called tides. It happens. I was very unsurprised by this, but the so-called "experts" in Amity are opportunists and exploited the situation for their own agenda.

The coroner is tasked with determining the cause of death. Rather than just admitting "we do not know" he instead coins a bizarre theory that a shark is to blame. The police chief, Martin Brody, a kind of Al-Gore figure, believes the claims of the coroner unquestionably. Just laps it up. One minute he's on the phone to the coroner, next minute he's writing the cause of death on a report as "shark attack". Unbelievable.

Delaying Action

The Town Mayor, Larry Vaughn, comes up with a much plausible theory - that the cause of death was a boat propeller. He should have thrown some more theories in there though in case they find a problem with the boat propeller one. Keep the experts busy addressing various counter explanations, however implausible, and action will be delayed.

If I was Mayor Vaughn I would have also sent an FIOA request for the coroner's raw data and all the emails sent between the police chief and the coroner. Then I could have sifted through it looking for something wrong.

Ben Meadows, a journalist for the Amity Gazette, was more effective at delaying action. First he cites technical procedures preventing closure of the beach:
"Technically you need the instruction of a civic ordinance or a special meeting of the town selectmen"

Very true!

When that doesn't work he appeals to uncertainty and doubt:
"We're not even sure what it was."

Indeed. It could have been a boat propeller, or perhaps a particularly sharp piece of water. Keep the experts on their toes, don't let them reach a "conclusion".

Mayor Vaughn sums up alarmism:
"It's all psychological, anyway. You yell 'Barracuda' and everyone says 'huh'. You yell 'Shark' and we've got a panic on our hands. I think we all agree we don't need a panic this close to the 4th of July."

Another Dead Body

Another dead body is found. Yawn. Of course the alarmism hits the roof and the "shark theory" goes public. The Mayor wisely holds a council meeting, kind of like a congressional hearing, and invites all the local business leaders.

Even if there IS a shark, is mitigating the problem by closing the beach really the correct solution? Can't bathers just adapt to a killer shark? Not that we are conceding ground on the existence of the shark yet. As one of the locals helpfully points out: "Nobody's seen a shark.". True at least no-one alive has seen one, and that's all that really matters.

Enter The Scientist

Matt Hooper from the "Oceanographic Institute" turns up. No-one seems to have called him, he just kind of appears. I've heard that scientists can actually smell sources of funding from up to 50 kilometers away. Hooper takes one look at the body and arrogantly proclaims:
"It wasn't an 'accident,' it wasn't a boat propeller, or a coral reef, or Jack the Ripper. It was a shark."

What alarmist nonsense! He just blew through all those equally good explanations. And as the local pointed out "nobody's seen a shark". So it's unscientific for Hooper to assert there definitely is a shark. He's hiding the uncertainty and doubt. Of course if he admitted there wasn't a shark all his funding would dry up...

But just like the CAGW fraud, the locals fall for Hooper's academic speak as if a so-called "shark expert" is some kind of authority on sharks. They are seemingly forgetting that Mayor Vaughn's theories are just as valid.

What Mayor Vaughn should have done here is start a blog called SharkAudit or WhatsUpWithTheShark. Unfortunately he doesn't think of this.

The Shark is Caught

While the so-called "experts" are playing with their "theories" and models, the local townspeople in the real world manage to catch and kill the shark, it's a large tiger shark which they bring back onto land. At this point we can conclude it was a shark attack after-all, because now that the possibility of beach closure has gone there is no reason to deny it anymore.

Of course Hooper the shark "expert" is not happy. He refuses to accept facts and claims they need to open the shark up to check it's the right one. The police chief, who is probably a communist stooge, is only too happy for this to go ahead.

Mayor Vaugn successfully prevents an autopsy on the shark. There's no need for evidence anymore.

The Scientist Admits To Losing the Raw Data

Hooper finds a Great White shark tooth in a wreck containing another dead body. Wow that's convenient. A dead body AND a Great White shark tooth. You couldn't make it up! Oh but wait it gets better - the Mayor wisely does an audit:

"Is that tooth here? Did anyone see it?"

Hooper admits he LOST the shark tooth in the water. If I was that incompetent in my business I would go out of business. But this is Oceanography we are talking about.

So the mayor wisely ignores the 3rd body citing the missing shark tooth:
"Well, I'm not going to commit economic suicide on that flimsy evidence."

Quite right! That's exactly what these socialists want you to do - commit economic suicide!

We Need More Funding!

The police chief makes a play for more funding:
"We have got to close the beaches. We have got to get someone to kill the shark, we need non-corrosive mesh netting, we need scientific support..."

Such a transparent grab for socialism and government control of the beach! The so-called shark expert also makes a frenzied last ditch attempt to fool the masses:

"Out there is a Perfect Engine, an Eating Machine that is a miracle of evolution -- it swims and eats and that's all. Look at that! Those proportions are correct. I know sharks."

If he actually believed there was a killer shark out there about to eat people would he really get so hysterical about it?

The mayor exposes his hidden agenda:
"You'd love to prove that. Getting your name in the National Geographic."

Yes it's all about funding and fame with these so-called "experts". They want to get their names in magazines. Can't trust them.

Anyway in the end it turns out a great white shark killed all those people. But on the plus side the beach does stay open.

Saturday, 18 December 2010

Arctic Sea Ice Prediction

What color line is JAXA going to use for 2011? And if Climate Scientists can't predict the color of the line in 2011, how on Earth do they expect us to believe they can predict anything about arctic sea ice?

Wednesday, 17 November 2010

Friday, 12 November 2010

Building Bridges


This is the end.

DenialDepot has now been running for over 18 months and until now I have never dropped the act. DenialDepot isn't going away as such, but I feel it is time to reveal myself and by doing so I expect the nature of the blog to change accordingly into something more serious and thoughtful.

I am in fact a skeptic of man-made global warming, although of course not quite to the extent that the blog has portrayed.

The sole purpose of DenialDepot all along has been to build bridges between skeptics and warmists. They say laughter is the best medicine. I happen to agree. Hopefully some of you will now accept our skepticism of the temperature records, the IPCC, etc more kindly. Reassuringly I have seen a number of warmists recently crossing the bridge which I have helped build over the last 18 months. Of course there are others who keep piling on the vitriol, but the fact that they don't get it just tells me how clueless some members of the warmist community actually are (no offense to the rest of you).

That aside the new face of DenialDepot will be one of reconciliation, concern and mutual discussion about how to fix the IPCC. What's gone wrong? How did it go wrong? how can we fix it? Don't worry the blog will be discussing science too, but we'll get onto the science much later once we've fixed the IPCC together and figured out who is to blame. I am also developing a new font for the blog called 'Times New Concerned' to add a sense of gravity to my words. Thus I will appear very concerned, very sensible, yet at the same time be remarkably indifferent to the threat of climate change.

This first post will be the beginning of a long and admittedly drawn out discussion about words that relate to the IPCC. I will provide a word from the dictionary and commentors are encourages to discuss that word in relation to climate science. Eventually when no-one remembers how this subject started or even what it was about I will make a new post to start the ball rolling again. My intention is not to leave behind a lingering sense that the IPCC is corrupt, but to discuss corruption and the IPCC as two separate entangled threads.

The first subject word for discussion is Ideologue.

What do you think about that word? Is it a good word to describe any climate scientists you can think of? Come on gang, lets just have an open and fair discussion and see if we can come up with any names.

I guess what I am trying to convey, ie the point of this post, is a sense of understanding uncertainty in science. Can we come up with a way to make the subject of uncertainty more uncertain? I am thinking of some kind of simple everyday analogy that will confuse everyone. Suggestions?

Don't forget though that this is primarily about building bridges between skeptics and those alarmists! Not that the IPCC would be competent enough to build a bridge though. Oops sorry, I meant to say my favorite bridge is the Golden Gate Bridge. Oh there I go again with ClimateGate references!

The subject word has just changed to dogma (I am pulling these out of a hat, don't worry it's all fair and we will get to the science shortly). Is dogma a form of ideology? No wait we've already done that word. Funny how this word association thing works because I am now thinking about hide the decline? What's that? Why am I thinking that?

Now for the science. Hmmm have any of you ever wondered just what IS science? Lets just all toss our ideas into the comments and maybe on this blog we will actually define what science is for the rest of the world. I think the IPCC could include some of our comments in it's next report. Yes that's a great idea lets write the next IPCC report in the comments.

Sorry this is all a bit disorganized but my head is swirling with ideas and I am not sure what my point is.

Did anyone read those emails?

Sunday, 7 November 2010

How To Cook A Graph SkepticalScience.com Style



Above is a graph of September arctic ice amount taken from the website of the Nationalized Snow and Ice (adjusted) Data Center (NSIDC). Warmists will have you believe that arctic ice is in decline and will regularly show you this graph to confuse you into believing their claim.

The warmist site SkepticalScience.com has even decided to exaggerate the NSIDC graph by putting an alarming curve through it.

In order to deny the claim that arctic ice is in decline you first need to find something wrong with the graph. Anything will do, but below I will run through all the things I found wrong with the graph. This is an indictment of both the NSIDC and SkepticalScience.com

First notice the Y-axis of the above NSIDC graph starts at four million. Yet everyone knows numbers start at zero, not four million! Even kids learn this in school. In technical speak, the NSIDC graph misleads people into thinking 4 million is the smallest integer. Hilariously the SkepticalScience.com graph has 3 million as the lowest y-axis value! The warmists can't make up their minds! If they can't agree on Y-axes how can they possibly predict the weather in 100 years time? Graph y-axes should always start at zero or else they will mislead people.

Lets correct the graph and remove that biased trend line at the same time:


What's next? Is there anything else in the graph above that we can bitterly complain about? Notice the y-axis reads "kilometers". That's interesting. Why is a US science body using a French measurement system? Perhaps it has no effect though. Perhaps the unit of measurement used in the graph has no bearing on the actual rate of sea ice decline. But we can't assume that's the case. Lets replace "square kilometers" with "square miles" instead and see what difference it makes:



Shocking. Compare the two graphs above. I wouldn't like to accuse the NSIDC and SkepticalScience.com of deliberate fraud, but is it just coincidence that the French system of kilometers shows faster sea ice decline than the US system of miles?

When the French measurement system disagrees with the American one, we should always stick to to the American one, not only for patriotism, but also because men landed on the moon using miles not kilometers. If you go to Europe you will be shocked at the levels of poverty. Many of them are so poor that they only learn English as a second or even third language. Even England in Britain, UK has switched away from kilometers and now officially uses miles.

There are two more problems with the graph though. Can you spot them?

The upper limit of the graph of 8.5 million square miles is wrong. The true upper limit should reflect the total surface area of the Earth which, assuming a round Earth, is roughly 200 million square miles (a flat Earth would be somewhat more but for now lets take a conservative estimate and assume mainstream science is right).

Graph modified so that y-axis reflects range of total surface area of the Earth

That's far more clear. Immediately I am having trouble seeing the sea ice. This is good. If you can't see it, it's not a problem.

The final correction is to do likewise with the x-axis. It is typical of warmists to omit the past even as they try to predict the future. Lets add in the full age span of the Earth: