Friday 11 September 2009

Arctic Sea Ice: Staggering Growth

August 2009 Arctic Sea Ice data is just in and it's another nail in the coffin of AGW. Ice is just refusing to melt and continues the pattern of severe growth of recent years. Are we headed into another Ice Age?

Please send this to your senators and congressmen so they will have true information to base decisions on. Perhaps just as they are about to pass some Death Taxes they will see this graph and realize "hang on a second! we're being lied to!"


In the comments section someone asks "I'm not a scientist. could you explain why the chart is tilted at an angle? Also, does the blue line show that median(?) ice extent has declined by 2 million sq km since 1978?"

I have just done what the alarmists do and defined a base-line (the grey horizontal line). Alarmists always choose flat base-lines, but they never reference a paper from a statistics journal to justify this choice ("climate science" is sloppy like this).

I decided to use a sloped base-line instead, in which case the graph must be tilted at an angle to align it correctly. The blue line is heading upwards relative to the baseline so this data cannot possibly be interpretted as a "decline" in sea ice.

Remember to apply your blog science skills and question everything. Question, for example, the conventional "wisdom" that says y-axes must go vertically and x-axes horizonally.Why should time go horizontally and extent go vertically? Remember that actual ice extent is a measure of the horizontal spread of sea ice, so in many respects by making the Y-axis more horizontal I have displayed the data in a more correct manner than so-called "phd scientists" do.


  1. It must be frustrating to be a Warmist in these times, when the planet simply refuses to co-operate with one's outlandish theories about a trace gas....

    I would add more, however I assume that Inferno's policy is similar to that of Professor Watts..

    Internet phantoms who have cryptic handles and no name get no respect here. If you think your opinion or idea is important, elevate your status by being open and honest. People that use their real name get more respect than phantoms with handles. I encourage open discussion.


    Lucy skywalker.

  2. I'm not a scientist. could you explain why the chart is tilted at an angle? Also, does the blue line show that median(?) ice extent has declined by 2 million sq km since 1978?

  3. Anonymous,

    does the blue line show that median(?) ice extent has declined by 2 million sq km since 1978?

    Of course not, and it's quite easy to see if you follow the debate on this matter that only those with a socialist agenda to cap and tax carbon emissions say that it does. For an alternative view, check out Anthony Watts, a non-agenda-driven TV weatherman whose paycheck depends only on the free market. He has written extensively on Arctic ice extent and how the ice extent is increasing year over year and has not changed much at all anyway. Also, George Will of the Washington Post wrote an op-ed earlier this year noting that Arctic ice was not in decline, and if the defensive and shrill attacks he got from the warmist community are any indication, they don't have much to stand on here.

    That said, I must confess that the first time I looked at the graph, I, too, thought the blue line was sloping downward, and was very confused as I knew that to be incorrect. However, if you look more closely, you'll see Inferno added a horizontal grey line near the blue line, and if you compare them you can see the blue line slopes upward. The downward slope is just an optical illusion caused by our inability to compare lots of diagonal lines.

    Of course, the graphs warmists like to display are often full of confusing diagonal lines, so you need to be careful not to read too much into them. You should check out the post preceding this one, where Inferno demonstrates several tactics that can fix this problem.

    could you explain why the chart is tilted at an angle

    I'm not entirely sure that it is, and Inferno could tell us for sure, but I suspect this may be a similar optical illusion at work.

  4. Professor Anthony Watts. LOL.

  5. Wow, Dr. Inferno's really on a roll, ain't he?

    I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we were to hear the pitter-patter of tiny Swedish feet this year as the Nobel Committee announces a roll-over jackpot winner.

    Not that those mainstream "science" types cut any ice with me... although ...they probably do have to cut ice, what with living in Sweden and global cooling and all.

  6. Anomynous writes: "I'm not a scientist. could you explain why the chart is tilted at an angle? Also, does the blue line show that median(?) ice extent has declined by 2 million sq km since 1978?"

    I have added an explaination of my methodology as an update to the blog post.

  7. Baron von Monckhofen12 September 2009 at 07:59

    Anonymous wrote: "Professor Anthony Watts. LOL."

    Watts is a blog science professor, not some obsolete dusty hoary boring "university professor" with his bookshelfs full of boring ancient musky books.

    Just like I am a Blog Baron!

  8. why the chart is tilted at an angle

    It's called an economic correction.

  9. This is a joke?
    Why would we go back into an ice age?

  10. Anonymous,

    It's all well and good to come here and ask questions but you are ignoring that fact that we are heading into a brutal and pulverising ice age. The cooling since 1998 proves it.

    We like evidence here. Where is your evidence that we are NOT going into an ice age?

  11. WR said "you are ignoring that fact that we are heading into a brutal and pulverising ice age".

    Of course we are, as everybody knows.

    Why else is Algores electricity bill for a house in a previously tropical State now equivalent to that of a medium sized European country?

  12. Baron von Monckhofen14 September 2009 at 10:20

    chek said "Why else is Algores electricity bill for a house in a previously tropical State now equivalent to that of a medium sized European country?"

    And that country is obviously France!

  13. I would actually like to put in a plug for aliens as they relate to climate change. I'm just a regular guy. I also, "stand unimpressed" with all that fancy book stuff, which i think may lead to communism and buttseks.

    I have lots of clear stories on how aliens have been messing with our climate, and no one has yet proved me wrong.

  14. Johnny Fartpants,

    I hope you realise that this is a SERIOUS blog. We only deal with genuine AUDITED data. If you can show evidence of alien contamination of the data, or of aliens creating large amounts of heat by manipulating the local cosmic plasma fluxes, then please do so, otherwise we can only assume you are a common troll.

  15. Wrinkled Retainer said: "If you can show evidence of alien contamination of the data, or of aliens creating large amounts of heat by manipulating the local cosmic plasma fluxes, then please do so, otherwise we can only assume you are a common troll."

    The great blog scientist Bob Armstrong has PROVED that the warming on Venus can't be so-called greenhouse effect, therefore Venusians are generating heat.

  16. Inferno,

    Your indisputable graph is also a clever test to have commies out themselves. Lean to the left (try it but don't tell anybody), and the ice looks like it is declining in your graph.

    Well done!

  17. Tracey,

    I knew that only a Blog Science Genius such as Professor Armstrong, free of the groupthink of leftist "peer review" (peer pressure more like!), could discover the truth.

    From this breakthrough proof, we can deduce that the Venusians are channelling excess energy via plasma fluxes to the Earth using our satellites as "relay stations". It can NOT be a coincidence that recent warming, at least until it stopped in 1998, has occurred since we started launching thousands of satellites!

    I think this is the final nail in the coffin of AGW and furthermore, the last wheel has fallen off the wagon!

  18. Oh, Ice Age up that a way is it? Because you tilted the graph huh? OK. But I do agree with you admonition to "question everything". Good call. So why are you all so er, um...

    ...GOD DAMNED ENORMOUSLY STUPID, yeah that's the phrase I was looking for. No need for a reply actually. Have a nice day.

  19. Tim Swanson,

    I see you have spewed your ill informed environazi nonsense here too. I pity you in your ignorance.

    Go and hug a tree if it makes you feel better. It might even stop you wetting the bed later.

  20. Baron von Monckhofen16 September 2009 at 01:13

    Poor little "Timmie", doesn't even understand how to read a graph. As anybody can see, the curve is clearly going up. And why would it matter that the graph is tilted? The data are still the same!

  21. Baron,

    Quite so. It is typical of small-minded leftists that they can only "see" in rigid "horizontal" and "vertical" dimensions. What a shame that their minds are constrained in such a strait-jacket, unlike ours, free to observe Creation in all its multidimensional glory!

  22. Well I took your advice Mr. Retainer, and went and hugged a tree, and actually I do feel a lot better now, mostly because I had a much more enlightening conversation with it than what is possible here.

    But I digress. I can't tell from you folks whether were commies or Nazis. I want to make sure I get it right you know.

  23. Baron von Monckhofen16 September 2009 at 10:27

    Yes Tim, and the tree probably feels a lot better too. You exhale carbondioxide you know, and trees need that to survive. Carbon dioxide is the gas of life! But if you tree-huggers get what you want, soon there will not be any carbondioxide and then all trees will die! And then you will regret that you blindly believed verything that Fat Al Gore said, just like they did at that hockey club he swindled.

  24. Tim,

    Commies or Nazis? They are the same thing so why split hairs? You do know that Nazi meant National Socialism, right?

  25. Uh no, I guess I wasn't up on my Nazi etymology there Mr Retainer, so thanks for that update.

    Thanks also for that insight Baron. Did that hockey club that Al swindled own any, say, hockey sticks perhaps? Just curious. And yes I know I exhale CO2, which beats what you people here spew out I might add.

  26. What's important is the total mass of arctic sea ice. Your graph uses the area (the square - although it's more circular in this case) while mass increases with the cube (kind of, although it's more pancake-shaped).

    Even a minor increase in area will increase mass exponentially. The implication is sea levels will to fall as the ice sheet traps water.

    Add in a fourth dimension, time, and the effect is even more pronounced.

    Think of it like Al Gore's house. If it starts off 10 meters wide, high and tall it'll use 1000 arbitary units of electricity a year. But if Al doubles its size to 20 meters wide, high and tall electricity use jumps to 8,000 units - an eight-fold increase!

  27. Do tell how floating ice lowers the sea level, where and by how much, in global terms.

  28. Tim Swanson,

    It seems you are capable of some limited improvement. Not bad for an extremowarmist I must say.

    Some day you might reach the enlightened state where you understand what we are trying to tell poor unfortunate souls such as yourself. Perhaps one day you can join us in a life free of bed-wetting!

  29. The last time the climate warmed significantly was the Medieval Warm Period an era of unprecedented prosperity and scientific advancement. Did you know that the average height of a Northern European in 1000AD was the same as that of a Northern European in 2000AD and that height is a proxy measure of human prosperity.

    And they didn't have SuVs!

  30. Somebody mentioned this being another nail in the coffin of AGW. I'd say this nail is driven home in a slightly bent angle which will make it impossible for the coffin to be ever opened again.

    Inferno, you, sir, are a Gentleman.

  31. Anonymous,

    Is it not fascinating what one can discover when one is open minded to all new information and unbridled by warmist groupthink?

    It was so warm during the MWP that Greenland became a major wine producer and Chinese ships carried cargos of wine and grapes over the North Pole. So much for Arctic ice being at record low levels today!

    Is Greenland a major wine producer today? No! This proves beyond doubt that the MWP was far warmer than today.

    Why do the IPCC and Al Gore not admit these simple FACTS? I'll tell you, it's because it would ruin their plan to turn the world into an overtaxed socialist environazi hell!

  32. Where are you pulling that Greenland wine producer info from... got link and corroboration? Chinese carrying it in ships over the North Pole? ... got link and corroboration? Google must be blocked as else it would be at the top of the page.

    One hit though for you:

    Yes, I can hear 'don't believe everything what's found on the internet', so why would your information carry any credence?

  33. Don't even try Sekerob. These people are fairly seriously brain-damaged here. It is fun to read the ludicrous replies however, if that's what you're after.

  34. Sekerob,

    Prof. Watts has famously posted a photo of a submarine surfaced in open water which we are assured was taken at the north pole.

    Having said that, I'm not sure if it was a Viking sub or not, but it certainly had that longboat look about it.

  35. Baron von Monckhofen17 September 2009 at 10:06


    If the vikings were not growing grapes on Greenland, how would you then explain this picture?


  36. I see that Tim Swanson has once again demonstrated that when confronted with information they don't like, blinkered warmists resort to AD HOMINEM.

    It PROVES beyond doubt how WEAK their case is.

    Some day Tim might see the light, but for now I must pity him in his self-inflicted Dark Ages.

  37. Yeah right... Monckhofen [Monckton], M√ľnchhausen... will not contest the observations by Tim Swanson.

    BTW I recognize the particular poles the grapes are on. Suspiciously the same as the ones in my back yard. Once every 10 years or so we get a little snow lasting several days. The January/February climate mean is +11 Celcius.

    Prof Watts, well he does not need qualifying. He's got that double barrel, sawed of in his trouser pocket. When he tries to pull the gun to shoot at anything that queries his UHI nonsense, it's usually ends in him grabbing the trigger and shooting himself in the foot.

    The Polar webcam was placed at the North Pole in April and is now on the 84th, so calculate how many miles the cam moved towards the Atlantic. Sea ice drifts all the time, the sub story lacking thus any value, since polinia form and close all the time at the Arctic, summer and winter.

    Boy, I'm disappointed, not really, but what's seen so far is not what's claimed in the About Us of this blog. Definitely a place where the trollesque and trawlers have a 24/7 field time, LoL.

  38. Baron von Monckhofen17 September 2009 at 10:49

    Sekerbob wrote:
    "BTW I recognize the particular poles the grapes are on. Suspiciously the same as the ones in my back yard. Once every 10 years or so we get a little snow lasting several days. The January/February climate mean is +11 Celcius."

    Which implies that it must have been very warm on Greenland during mediveal times. Reductio ergo sum.

  39. Borin' van Monckthoven, does Touchwood talk to you? Did he communicate that planet is growing and a tip of Greenland broke off and floated to the Washington shores, circa 2005? Let's give you a final straw chance to proof beyond even the mildest doubt, by you providing the exact L/L coordinates where the vineyard picture was taken so we'll be able to real time zoom in with Google Earth.

    Yes right at / Rather unimaginative, far below the standards this site deserve, but enjoy talking to yourself.

  40. Baron von Monckhofen17 September 2009 at 23:12

    Dear Sekerob,

    I will give you the coordinates for that Greenland vineyard, but as you think you are so clever I also have some questions for you. Here is the first one:

    From the distribution of the vines, olives, citrus and grain crops in Europe, UK and Greenland, calculate the temperature in the Roman and Medieval Warmings and the required atmospheric CO2 content at sea level to drive such warmings. What are the errors in your calculation? Reconcile your calculations with at least five atmospheric CO2 proxies. Show all calculations and justify all assumptions.

    So lets see how clever and wellinformed you are, Sekerob. I bet you haven't even read Ian Plimer's book. And it is evident from your latest comment that you have never heard of plate tectonics.

    Vos es a pinguis turpis monachus!

  41. Your question on vines, olives etc., is a verbatim copy originating from the Industrial Geologist Ian Plimer. Since you found the BS questions directed at Monbiot in a classic evasive deniloose style action, you will probably , though not 100% sure, be able to find the analysis and rating. Let the good people here know what you turnup.

  42. Mr Sekerob,

    When you have answered the Baron's starter question, move on to

    Calculate 10 Ma time flitches using W/R ratios of 10, 100 and 500 for the heat addition to the oceans, oceanic pH changes and CO2 additions to bottom waters by alteration of sea floor rocks to greenschist and amphibolite facies assemblages, the cooling of new submarine volcanic rocks (including MORBs) and the heat, CO2 and CH4 additions from springs and gas vents since the opening of the Atlantic Ocean. From your calculations, relate the heat balance to global climate over these 10 Ma flitches. What are the errors in your calculations? Show all calculations and discuss the validity of any assumptions made.

    When you have done so, we will divulge the evidence for Greenlandic viticulture during the MWP. We have to protect our sources. Until recently, a Googol search would find hundreds of "hits" on this topic but thanks to Al Gore's control of the Internet (he invented it as a vehicle for disseminating leftist and warmist propaganda) there is now ONLY ONE item of evidence still accessible to the public using normal consumer computers. This is likely to be "disappeared" in the very near future so you'll need to be quick.

    This stirring anthem might inspire you.

    Nunarput, utoqqarsuanngoravit niaqqut ulissimavoq qiinik.
    Qitornatit kissumiaannarpatit tunillugit sineriavit piinik.
    Akullequtaasut merlertutut ilinni perortugut tamaani
    kalaallinik imminik taajumavugut niaqquit ataqqinartup saani.
    Atortillugillu tamaasa pisit ingerlaniarusuleqaagut
    nutarterlugillu noqitsigisatit siumut, siumut piumaqaagut.
    Inersimalersut ingerlanerat tungaalitsiterusuleqaarput,
    oqaatsit "aviisit" qanoq kingunerat atussasoq erinigileqaarput.
    Taqilluni naami atunngiveqaaq, kalaallit siumut makigitsi.
    Inuttut inuuneq pigiuminaqaaq, saperasi isumaqaleritsi.

    It's best in the native tongue. Meaning is lost and the rhymes don't work in English

  43. Hey thanks for that head's up on the imminent disappearance of that last reference Baron. I'll get right on that, pronto-like (pssst, did ya hear about how the U.N. is going to shoot thermal infrared rays down from space to warm up the planet in case AGW turns out to be false!).

    In the mean time could you provide the actual numbers (not graphs) of arctic sea ice extent and thickness over the last few decades. I'm sure you're got those handy right?

  44. Tim,

    Actually it's Shriveled Retainer who added the second question to the pop quiz (original BS contortion #8 by Ian Plimer which had the rock bottom rating of 0F) and pointed at the disappearance of that last piece of evidence.

    "There is No Spoon"(feeding).

    PS, to speed up the pop-quiz process, here a link to the whole Plimer/Monbiot Q&A:

  45. Thanks Sekerob. It's hard to keep track of the several Einsteins parading around here.

    "We have to protect our sources"
    It's called a toilet seat cover I believe.

  46. Baron von Monckhofen18 September 2009 at 12:16

    Dear Sekerblob,

    I don't think that anybody (besides Dim) is fooled by your pathetically transparent attempt to avoid my very reasonable questions. But that was exactly the kind of behaviour we all have come to expect from you! That was a double-blind test you know: I wanted to see whether you had read the relevant literature, and whether you actually had understood what you read. But as you failed that test, I will let you find those Greenland vineyards by yourself. It shouldn't be too hard as you think you are so clever.
    Regarding Plimer vs Moonbat: the only thing the latter individual (I will not call him a gentleman) did was to repeat some questions that some other warmist baboons already had asked. I mean, seriously, how many times should Plimer have to not answer these stupid questions? Enough is enough!
    You see, Blob, what the problem with people like you and Dim is that you have got global warming as a substitute religion, because you do not believe in Capitalism and Free Markets. And you are an easy victim of mind control, which is everywhere: on the Internet (which after all was invented by the mythomaniac Al Gore for exactly that purpose), in the mass media, in schools and universities, and not least by psychotronic mind control lasers which can work from far. And as long as you insist on closing your mind to the blessings of blog science, which is particularly evident on this blog, you will remain a slave under Al Gorian propaganda and mind control.

    I was once also a firm believer in AGW, Blob, but then I started looking into the issue with an mind open to new ideas and dissenting opinions but closed against mind control. And I started asking inconvenient questions, like "How could the Vikings grow grapes on Greenland if AGW is true - they didn't even have any SUVS?" Many people called me crazy and threatened to destroy my career and transport me to the secret IPCC camps, but that just made me more convinced:

    Absentem laedit, qui cum ebrio litigat.

  47. Baron, I'm afraid that even I have to admit that you really DO have a way with words...

    ...the same way that demolition derby drivers have a way with driving, and the Waffle House a way with fine cuisine, but a way nontheless. (In case you're wondering, I assue you that this is a compliment).

    Now, how about those sea surface T and arctic ice data?

  48. Tim,

    I have no idea why you are asking for arctic ice data. All you need to know can be found in the graph and article at the top of this thread.

    Surely it couldn't be any clearer than that? Perhaps you are a typical strait-jacketed warmist who can't overcome his rigid orthogonal conditioning. There's a good reason for the fascists being called the AXIS powers, you know.

  49. Tim,

    Waffle houses are terrific, don't you dare put them down. They profide delicious hot food at any hour, which you will no doubt need as the climate is rapidly cooling! The evidence is right outside your window, already this month has been several degrees colder than last month across the entire USA. Indeed, my room is much colder than it was 20 minutes ago, and that's not because I just turned on the air conditioning.

    Incontravertable proof that we are seeing drastic global cooling. Wish I was a polar bear...

  50. Tim Swanson wants arctic ice data, BlogScientist Anthony Watts provides it: "2009 Arctic Sea Ice Extent exceeds 2005 for this date" !!!11!ONE!!ELEVENTY!!! FTW W00T!

  51. dearest Inferno,
    Mr. shit-for-brains, the graph indicates, when viewed at any angle, that the amount of sea ice has DECLINED. even your blue arrow indicating where we'd be in an ice age, based on its upward slant, is confirming a loss of sea ice.

    moron, i hope you're the first to fry to a crispy crunch. what an attention-starved idiot.

  52. You got the idea for this from nsidc, no?

  53. Inferno,

    There is nothing new under the sun. Nils Axel-Morner used a slanted graph. URL too long to type in, so see the Deltoid blog Australian War on science 41 comments.

  54. I didn't copy from anyone. If anything they knew I would use this technique years before I did and copied me.

  55. Hilarious. It's even more hilarious when you read some of the comments.

  56. We must also ask ourselves why "scientists" insist on labelling their graphs with the letters "X" and "Y". Surely it is more than a little odd that they use the 24th and 25th letters of the alphabet and not "A" and "B" as any normal person would?

    Good i.e. Blog Science teaches us that if we cannot explain something with common sense without having to trawl through all the boring nonsense in the biased so-called "scientific journals", then we have good reason to be suspicious of it.

    To me it is clear that these mysterious letters commorate Mar*X* and Trotsk*Y*. Others point out that Lenin is pronounced (and indeed spelt) in the original Russian as "L*Y*enin".

    Either way no prominent Alarmist has even responded to this damning new evidence.

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  58. Revered Doctor Inferno, we'd like so much to get an update on this graph !

  59. But what can "update" mean for a graph for which time itself is mutable? Only Inferno can say...

  60. OMG, this blog is hilarious. I've almost wet myself from laughing so hard. Uh, that tilted graph, pure genius. Do a mirror image and you can actually make time go backwards... YES YOU CAN!!! Creating that graph is evidence, pure evidence! Seeing as its approaching halloween, I shall don my alien costume, manipulate the graph and prove that aliens are also manipulating our climate.
    Ugh. *wipes tears away*. If anybody out there was truly a climate change denier, this site will make a case for rational thought. Ludicrous! haha... geez, cant stop laughing...
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  87. Sea ice is salt water. It has a lower freezing point than continental ice which is frozen fresh water. Antarctica is a continent. The Arctic is not. The closest land mass to the Arctic is Greenland. Continental ice both in Antarctica & on Greenland is shrinking. There is a lot more fresh water entering the ocean in the southern hemisphere of course, which is why sea ice around the Antarctic is increasing temporarily. That is, fresh water entering the sea decreases salinity & raises the freezing point. In other words, the fact that sea ice is only increasing at one pole is further proof that climate change is real. This is basic science that one should understand before going to the effort of creating a site full of bogus claims & unscientific nonsense. Now huge releases of frozen methane are being observed from the ocean floor & from the permafrost regions of the northern hemisphere. Unfortunately, all this correlates exactly with climate change models that have existed for almost 40 years now.

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