Wednesday, 13 April 2011

Staggering Drop In Global Temperature

WOW that's the biggest drop in global temperature EVER

Note: Pay attention to the green line in the graph, NOT the red line. The red line will deceive you into thinking the world is warming. It's only there for purposes of illustration later. Please ignore it until then.

The current temperature anomaly for March 2011 has just come in at -0.1C. That's MINUS 0.1C which is below the freezing point of water, so how can the arctic be melting?

The total temperature drop highlighted by the green line is almost as great as the entire warming that occurred since 1900! So much for global warming then! If this continues we will enter an ice age next year!

You might remember being told to focus on a similar drop and minus numbers in 2008. You might even remember how important that event was a sign of things to come. The eminent Joe Bastardi at the time described the 2007-2008 drop as "straight out of the book of climate. The pattern is so much like the 1949-1950 La Nina, which was signaling the start of the reversal of the warming of the earth’s climate in the 1930s, ‘40s and early 50s. Only someone choosing to ignore it, or not wanting to see it, would not be cognizant of it."

I couldn't find the book of climate at the library to confirm his claim, but it certainly rings true with what I want to believe. Besides when heavy weights like Piers Corbyn and David Archibald are predicting the world will cool in coming decades, who can argue?

Anyway needless to say Bastardi was right. Temperature just kept falling after 2008 and now it's falling all over again! There was a briefly mild kind of slight flattish temperature bump in 2010, but that was just noise caused by an El Nino and entirely predictable. The current temperature drop however coincides with a La Nina and the last thing climate scientists expected to happen during a La Nina was for global temperature to fall! The cause of the drop is probably because the oceans have turned upside down due to something we experts call the PDO oscillation, which basically means an ice age is coming.

The Side Bar: Trends and Noise

The side bar is a feature I use to stroke my ego teach my readers the "dos" and "donts" of science. Previous side bars have explained precisely why exponentials should not be used and why data should never be plotted

In this side bar I want to explain why the use of noise is preferable to longterm trends for predicting the future.

The use of trends and noise is one of the main sources of statistical disagreement between deniers and alarmists. We of course consult professional statisticians whereas climate scientists don't. In their typical deceptive style warmists insist you should focus on irrelevant long term trends in data rather than short term 'noise'. For example in the graph above a long term trend is depicted by the red arrow, whereas they would insist the green line was just noise. Deniers like me point out that noise is more important than trends, after-all the green line is steeper than the red line and also going in the right direction.

But perhaps the fairest way to arbitrate a scientific disagreement and build some bridges towards reconciliation at the same time is to check what God thinks. In this case God thinks the warmists are wrong, for if God didn't want our attention to be drawn to short term noises why did he build ears on the sides of our heads?

Religious based facts aside, I can prove noise is the most important part of the data. If we ignored the noise in the temperature record and just focused on the longterm trend we would, of all preposterous things, be forced to conclude the world was warming.

390 comments:

  1. Rock causes warming as is told in the wikipedia the free encyclopedia:"The rock vapor would have condensed within two thousand years, leaving behind hot volatiles which probably resulted in a heavy carbon dioxide atmosphere with hydrogen and water vapor. Liquid water oceans existed despite the surface temperature of 230 °C because of the atmospheric pressure of the heavy CO2 atmosphere." It's the noise. Currently they talk of heavy rock and even metal rock, noisy stuff, that. Then there's http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punk_(fireworks), a clear sign that this has been deliberate ever since Elvis. Ban rock, and cool it!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi! Proud denier here also! There are no units for the 'y' axis (temp anomaly). So when you say "The current temperature anomaly for March 2011 has just come in at -0.1C. That's MINUS 0.1C which is below the freezing point of water, so how can the arctic be melting?" Should not the anomaly be a referenced baseline, not neccisarilly 0C ? IE is 0 anomaly 0C+/-0C or 12.2C+/-0C or 14.6+/-0C

    All the best.... Jeff

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  3. Everybody knows that temperatures are determined by comparing with the freezing point of water, which God put at 0 degrees C just so it was at a convenient spot on the temperature scale.

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  4. This saddens me. I was really getting to like red lines.

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  5. Endorphin Monkey16 April 2011 at 18:44

    I didn't bother reading the text below the graph as I know everything already, but went to Google Maps to find out more about the weather station data sources for the green and red lines.

    Green Line Road is located in southern Ontario, Canada. Canada has the reputation of being a cold country, as it exports cold air to parts of the US. That's why temperature is falling there. Red Line is a crossroads in Iowa. The temperature increase there is likely due to the Rural Heat Island effect, which happens when you put in gravel roads and leave farm fields fallow during economic downturns.

    I don't know what that squiggly blue line is doing there on the graph. You can take that one out. The red and green lines give you all the information you need to create the truth.

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  6. That one big blue line needs adjustments and smoothing. And I need a smoothie!

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  7. The red line shows the same type of common mistake that leads people to mistakenly call Denver the "Mile High" City.

    When you drive up a mountain it's not all uphill, the road goes up AND down. So when you drive to Denver, even though you've driven uphill by a mile, you drive drive downhill A LOT TOO! Few people know enough to count that in. (i.e. like above, they ignore the green line.)

    Making things worse is the perception problem, when you drive up-hill your car slows down so it seems like your driving up-hill a lot longer than you really are, vice-versa for down-hill, leading one to believe they are a lot higher than they really are.

    You can't really blame Denver for exaggerating the altitude. There's little to see there and they need the tourists.

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  8. "next years ice age will be the final nail in the coffin of global warming"

    HA we already have that covered in our brilliant press release awaiting al gore's approval.

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    Scientists explain using a model RX807E Hitachi deluxe refrigerator, "if you feel the back of the fridge, down the bottom near that round black thing with the wires you will feel that it is quite warm, this is the global warming taking place, inside the freezer box you will find ice, that is the direct result of the warming of that black thingo,"

    move on, nothing to see here!

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  9. keep listening to those noises inside your head people....
    LA LA LA LA LA LA LA!!

    The earth is getting colder duh....
    God has changed the freezing temperature to be lower, so ice now melts at lower temperatures and that is why we are losing glacial ice...OBVIOUSLY!

    And yeah, the city of denver is lying about their altitude....sigh...

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  10. I just want to say I like deg F better than deg C. 0 deg F is the freezing point of salt water and 100 deg F is what you get when you stick a thermometer in a cows butt. I wonder if the guys that came up with that scale argued over who was going to get the data to determine the 100 deg F mark.

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  11. I implore you to stick with this approach to analysis Professor, because your conclusions are quite evidently based on the actual data.

    The likes of Tomato et al can only fabricate entirely theoretical plots of the data (that hardly ever match the actual data) and try and pass them off as "trends" that they then try to impress on us are more important than the actual data, which they have scandalously downgraded to "noise".

    WTF??

    The only "noise" as far as I can see is the sound of the blood pounding in my temples as I try to comprehend the sheer deviousness of so-called climate "scientists". You really have to watch the pea under the walnut with those guys.

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  12. Understanding the Thermodynamic Atmosphere Effect (Joseph E. Postma, March 2011)

    We see that in every single instance of comparison, the Theory of the Greenhouse Effect appears to contradict what the Laws of Thermodynamics have to say about the exact same physical situation.

    The conclusion of this article is very simple: there is no such thing as a radiative Theory of the Greenhouse Effect, not in real greenhouses, and certainly not in any planetary atmosphere known to man. The true role of the atmosphere, on Earth, is that it cools the ground, not warms it. Therefore, there is no such thing as Anthropogenic Global Warming or anthropogenic-CO2 induced climate change, because that supposition is based on the false Theory of the Greenhouse Effect.

    Please see http://www.oarval.org/ThermoAtmos.htm

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  16. That green line told me all I wanted to know.
    I stopped reading the rest straight away. Science is simple if you do it simply.
    Stands to reason.
    As a semi-retired refrigerator engineer I've repaired many refrigerators. You get in, you get out and you don't muck about.

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  17. It may be the biggest drop, but it is simply one part of the long term trend, so unless the long term average changes the overall trend is still UP. Unless the next few years continue on a trend that crosses that red line you conveniently drew than all bets are off. Any idiot can comment on a single data point, but to ignore the trend is beyond commenting on for the laughter it evokes.

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  18. Hi, great blog, it is very helpful. I wasn't sure what my opinion on global warming was, because I've heard both extremes; at one end that it's a conspiracy, and at the other end that it's happening faster than they thought. Thank you for writing this blog, because with all the lies out there, we need someone to tell the truth.

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  25. The conclusion of this article is very simple: there is no such thing as a radiative Theory of the Greenhouse Effect, not in real greenhouses, and certainly not in any planetary atmosphere known to man. The true role of the atmosphere, on Earth, is that it cools the ground, not warms it.

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  26. I just want to say I like deg F better than deg C. 0 deg F is the freezing point of salt water and 100 deg F is what you get when you stick a thermometer in a cows butt.

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  32. can't wait for the next ice age. No snow here right now!

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  44. Yep, no such thing as a greenhouse effect, except in a real greenhouse. Does not exist in an open system atmosphere planet. Venus does not have a greenhouse effect either. Light does not even make it to the surface. It's hot due to the pressure of the atmosphere. Very simple. The Earth has a linear warming of about 0.45 degrees C per 100 yrs. Imposed on this very small upward advance in the global temperature are variations of the cooling vs. warming episodes. These variations are about 0.72 deg C. The present global temps show so effect at all, zero, nada, niminitz, of the rising atmospheric CO2. By the way, the turnover of the CO2 is about every seven yrs.
    The Arctic ocean temperature will decrease as the ice clears away. Yep, ice acts as an insulator, so when it disappears over the Arctic, those waters will chill down more than before. Yep, that's a recent finding, surprise.

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  80. Hi! Proud denier here also! There are no units for the 'y' axis (temp anomaly). So when you say "The current temperature anomaly for March 2011 has just come in at -0.1C. That's MINUS 0.1C which is below the freezing point of water, so how can the arctic be melting?" Should not the anomaly be a referenced baseline, not neccisarilly 0C ? IE is 0 anomaly 0C+/-0C or 12.2C+/-0C or 14.6+/-0C

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