Correcting GISTEMP

GISTEMP is the NASA GISS global temperature surface record and it belongs to James Hansen.

People sometimes ask why climate skeptics criticize GISTEMP so much? Well it started off as a hunch, we felt that if our arch nemesis James Hansen was running it, it must be wrong. If this was merely politics that would be all we needed to believe it was wrong. But this is science and science demands evidence, so dutifully we sought out evidence to back our conclusion.

Here I bring together all the lines of evidence we have manufactured and furthermore I show how GISTEMP would look after corrections.

GISTEMP disagrees with the satellite record

The first piece of evidence is a simple observation. Since 1979 satellites have been measuring the temperature of the lower atmosphere. GISTEMP is trying to measure the temperature of the surface. The surface and lower atmosphere are not exactly the same thing, but you'd expect the temperature trend in both to be somewhat similar.

But look at how GISTEMP shows far more warming than the UAH satellite record. The disagreement is astronomical. This is what Blog Science has been banging on about for years!

Urban Heat Island Effect

Warmists will tell you there is no such thing as the urban heat island effect, but that's a complete strawman because their very own studies say there is an urban heat island effect. In fact they even try to correct for it in GISTEMP!

As Blog Scientists we must assume they don't correct for UHI enough. Blog Science knows that GISTEMP is contaminated by UHI bias. In the following graph I correct GISTEMP for UHI by 0.01C/decade.

If this was the full magnitude of UHI contamination that Blog Science was suggesting we would be just making a big deal about nothing! Don't worry we aren't. So obviously we must be talking about a far bigger correction being needed. Lets try correcting GISTEMP by 0.05C/decade for UHI bias.

That's more like it. We can now see that the allegations against GISTEMP not correcting for UHI make a big difference!

Micro-site Biases

The surface record relies on sensors. Sensors are uncannily aware of the tidiness of their surroundings. They are very partial on having nice tidy surroundings and being checked on by men in smart lab coats. If these conditions are not met they refuse to measure temperature properly and just spin around, warmer and warmer, out of control.

It has been proven by Blog Science that James Hansen hasn't personally kept all the sensor locations tidy. In fact noone seems to have bothered and tourists have left rubbish like barrels and boats lying around, items known to cause warming trends. Even worse some people have installed AC units near sensors. Blog Science knows that by installing an AC unit or a boat next to a sensor, that sensor will read ever higher temperatures each year until eventually the sensor will melt.

Warmists claim that the GISTEMP algorithm statistically detects and removes such significant biases from the record. But as Blog Scientists we assume otherwise.  We also demand to know why science isn't performed like in the movies? Why aren't there teams of good looking men and woman scientists in shiny suits going around in futuristic metallic science vans tidying up the sensors? Blog Science can only conclude that microsite biases are not properly accounted for in GISTEMP and that these biases cause GISTEMP to be too warm.

Like with UHI bias the microsite bias must be somewhat large or else we would just be making a big deal about nothing! So I propose another correction of 0.05C, this time for microsite bias. The following graph shows the total correction (0.1C/decade) for UHI bias and microsite bias.

We see that correcting for UHI and microsite bias has reduced the warming a lot! So much for the IPCC's predictions of children melting within 20 years.

Now lets compare the corrected GISTEMP to UAH satellite record again. The following graph shows that the previous disagreement between GISTEMP and the satellite record has disappeared thanks to our Blog Science efforts. It has been replaced with a new disagreement though.

Now the satellites show too much warming. The conclusion is obvious. It is time for Blog Science to attack the reliability of the satellite records.

Met Office Hadley Admits Surface Record Is "Incorrect"

From the horses mouth itself:

A substantial proportion of the September CLIMAT monthly land station summary report data that was sent over the GTS (Global Telecommunication System) was obviously incorrect. For the past few weeks we have been liaising with the sources to gain a version that was correct. As this issue affects a substantial portion of the globe we are not in a position to release a 'global' estimate. Nor will we do so until we are satisfied that an adequate amount of verified data is present.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/

Just as I expected they are too busy "validating" the data to bother releasing it. Why not release it and let Blog Scientists search for errors? We can publish our results in the Telegraph and in an article on the Register, both Journals with a history of fair-handed reporting on the subject.

I can only guess what "liaising with the sources" means. Sounds a lot like a metaphor for "team science"

Can the IPCC finally be disbanded now?

HadCrut3 - Where the **** is my data?!

Where is the September temperature update?! It's now November.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

This is intolerable having to wait over two months for data. Where is it? You can tell I am angry! I need this data immediately for Blog Science Auditing.

I hope they aren't wasting time validating the data before they release it. I just need the data, if there's any errors in it I am sure it can be corrected shortly after release without fuss.

As this is a top science blog, why not post me your own suggestions of what the Hadley Climate Center could be doing? Remember now is the season to tie every paranoid thought to  Copenhagen somehow.

I'll kick you off: Are they too busy installing their fake tree rings in Siberian forests?

Update: Another blog is also concerned http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/02/hadcrut-watch/

SuperDuperFreakonomics

Global warming - Solved.

I recently discovered a book which finally puts manmade global warming to bed in a coffin and then nails the lid firmly shut. It's called SuperFreakonomics and it's written by Top Men who are bravely attempting to solve the world's problems through the medium of selling books. My worldview was immediately challenged by the image of an exploding apple on the cover. Most people would never expect an apple to actually explode like that. In many ways this book has all the qualities of Blog Science. It's almost like a blog written on paper with comments disabled.

The most important problem they solve is how to stick it to warmists. The solution they provide is to point out that even if co2 was a problem, we can solve that problem without raising taxes. All it would take is a smoke machine attached to a funnel. All the smoke would then be funneled up into the sky where it would block sunlight and offset any global warming. Oh and just to stick it to the warmists more, it turns out the best place in the world to put such a smoke machine is on top of scenically mined Alberta oil sands - so those will definitely need to be mined ASAP.

Any guess as to why the IPCC reports don't have a chapter on smoking the warming out of the atmosphere? Is it because smoke pipes, even long ones, cannot be taxed?

How did these SuperFreakonomics geniuses come up with such an off-the-wall solution to mythical global warming? I suspect they did so by ignoring the peer reviewed literature on the matter. This would enable them to successfully open their minds to wild possibilities and conclusions unconstrained by so-called "experts".

So congratulation to the Super Freakonomics guys, but they shouldn't get too cocky! Given my importance in the area of Blog Science I am very suprised they didn't contact me before publication. It's hard to imagine they haven't heard of this blog so what were they thinking? I wonder if they were inspired by my idea of using catapults to throw co2 into the stratosphere where it would become mixed with the ether of space?

Public service announcement: The liberals will want you to put your clocks back an hour this week. Please delay doing so as long as possible, we need to save as much daylight as possible this Hale winter.

Scientists admit the Sun is the only factor in climate - no need to raise taxes afterall!

A lone bird worries about the coming maunder minimum.

Breaking news from last year just in. Russian Scientists, known to be one of most credible types of scientist, have discovered that the Sun dominates the climate and published the following PDF to the Blog Review Process. As is typical with the Blog Review Process, it gets flagged through as a superb piece of science.

http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/abduss_nkj_2009.pdf

I was stunned and amazed to hear this news. To think we are privileged to live in 2009 AD, the most important year so far in climate science - the year in which a Russian scientist finally proved we don't need more taxes.

This is not merely a relatively unknown scientist publishing a PDF full of rehashed ideas. No this is a groundbreaking moment. Galileo and Einstein have finally been superseded. 

When I saw Figure 6 I literally spat coffee all over the keyboard I was so impressed. Lines all draw in parallel fashion with timelines and numbers. Very impressive. Concerns the amount of ice I believe. Ice has gone up since 2007 and the Sun has gone down. Cannot be a coincidence. Just cannot!

Not only does he put a final nail in the coffin of Alarmism, but he also sounds the alarm that we are descending into a catastrophic cold period.