Sunday, 3 April 2011

The IPCC Forecast Is Simply Wrong

If you have paid attention to the recent congressional hearing on Climate-Gate you will no doubt have heard that forecasting guru Dr. J. Scott Armstrong has proven the IPCC models are outperformed by a simple model

Armstrong argues:
Those involved in the global warming alarm have violated the “simple methods” principle.
He recommends that:
"To help ensure objectivity, government funding should not be provided for climate-change forecasting. As we have noted, simple methods are appropriate for forecasting for climate change. Large budgets are therefore not necessary."
If you doubt Dr Armstrong is a forecasting guru check the testimony:
Dr Armstrong ... is the author of Long-range Forecasting, the creator of forecastingprinciples.com, and editor of Principles of Forecasting (Kluwer 2001), an evidence-based summary of knowledge on forecasting methods. He is a founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, and the International Symposium on Forecasting. He has spent 50 years doing research and consulting on forecasting
So yes he's very much involved in forecasting.
We conducted a validation test of the IPCC forecasts based on the assumption that there would be no interventions. This test found that the errors for IPCC model long-term forecasts (91 to 100 years in the future) were 12.6 times larger than those from an evidence-based “no change” model. Based on our analyses, we concluded that the global warming alarm is an anti-scientific political movement.
This is music to my ears, and the ears to other deniers the Internet wide. At last we have scientific sounding justification for our claims that the experts know less than simple folk. We can figure it out ourselves. Oh they might have fancy equations and computers but what really counts is wild ass guesses from those willing to think out of their armchairs.

The conclusion I like to draw is that simple models always work better than more complex models. Sounds right to me. And of course Armstrong is right, he was after-all the first man on the moon.

Glowing recommendations abound. Noone quite understands what Armstrong did, but we share absolute conviction that he's justified our basic dogma:
"I have not heard any testimony but am under the impression Scott Armstrong knows a great deal about complex modeling and has rejected it as failed (at least long term modeling)" - blog comment
An Analysis of Armstrong's validation test of the IPCC forecasting model

But unlike other denier blogs lets go a bit further and actually try to understand what Armstrong did to demonstrate a simple model beats the IPCC models at making longterm forecasts. This is a technical blog afterall.

The validation test Armstrong performed is detailed in his 2009 paper, Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making, co-authored by Willie Soon and published in the International Journal of Forecasting (wait where have I heard of that before?).

What Armstrong did was to use discredited global temperature data published by the university at the center of Climate Gate. But in this case we can trust the data because it leads to a conclusion we want to believe.

Hadcrut3, the temperature data used to test IPCC model and simple benchmark model forecasts.

Armstrong made a simple benchmark model that forecasts temperature. It is very simple, it just predicts that future temperature will be identical to today's. So his simple benchmark model's 100 year forecast starting from 1851 predicts that the 1951 temperature anomaly will be the same as the 1851 temperature anomaly.

Because forecasting single annual anomalies is exactly the kind of thing the IPCC does.

Armstrong first tested his benchmark model against IPCC forecasts made in 1992. Unfortunately this way he could only test a 17 year forecast made by the IPCC and he noted that policymakers were more interested in long-term forecasts (eg more like 100 years ahead, not 17):
"Policymakers are concerned with long-term climate forecasting, and the ex ante analysis we have described was limited to a small sample of short-horizon projections. To address this limitation, we calculated rolling projections from 1851 to illustrate a proper validation procedure."

What he really wanted to be able to do was to test something like a 100 year IPCC forecast made in 1851 against the forecast made by his benchmark model. But just how could he obtain 100 year IPCC forecasts made in 1851 when the IPCC didn't even exist in 1851? Armstrong found a simple solution:

Dangerous manmade global warming became an issue of public concern after NASA scientist James Hansen testified on the subject to the US Congress on June 23, 1988 (McKibben, 2007), after a 13-year period from 1975 over which global temperature estimates were up more than they were down. The IPCC (2007) authors explained, however, that “Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750” (p. 2). There have even been claims that human activity has been causing global warming for at least 5000 years (Bergquist, 2008).

It is not unreasonable, then, to suppose, for the purposes of our validation illustration, that scientists in 1850 had noticed that the increasing industrialization of the world was resulting in an exponential growth in “greenhouse gases”, and projected that this would lead to global warming of 0.03 C per year.

Yes that's right, the IPCC didn't exist in 1851, but we can always imagine what they would have said if they had existed in 1851. After-all it isn't like the 0.03C per year warming rate is based on a complicated model. The IPCC models are simple right? 0.03C/year, wherever that comes from, is clearly based on nothing more than the notion that temperature will go up. 0.3C per decade is just a kind of universal warming rate that any IPCC scientist will eventually fixate on, even if that IPCC scientist exists in 1851.

The alternative to making it up would have been to take GCM hindcasts and compare them to HadCRUT. But that's quite involved. The idea here is to take the simpler route. It's simpler just to make shit up. That's one of the principles of forecasting in fact - make shit up.

So now lets compare the simple benchmark forecast with the IPCC forecast. At 0.03C warming per year the 1851 IPCC would have predicted the hadcrut 1951 temperature anomaly to be +2.7C, compared to the actual anomaly of -0.17C. Armstrong's simple benchmark model performs much better, predicting a 1951 temperature anomaly of -0.3C.


The absolute mean error in this case for Armstrong's model is 0.13C error. For the IPCC model it's a massive 2.87C error. The 1851 IPCC loses.

So when you next hear that simple models perform better at forecasting than complex IPCC climate models, now you know the technical details behind that fact. Thank god someone with the competence of Armstrong was brought in to testify before congress on such an important issue.

406 comments:

  1. Baron von Monckhofen3 April 2011 12:02

    Wow, I can only say that I envy the creativity of Armstrong and Soon.

    This also disproves the hockey stick (again)!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Baron von Monckhofen3 April 2011 12:25

    "There have even been claims that human activity has been causing global warming for at least 5000 years (Bergquist, 2008)."

    With 0.03 degrees warming per year in 5000 years that would be ... a lot of warming predicted by the bronze-age IPCC!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Benny Rumblebelly3 April 2011 12:57

    My doctor says that I have gained 12 pounds since my last visit a year ago. As I am 60 years old, this means that at that rate I should be weighing 720 pounds by now. But I'm only weighing a tiny 306 pounds, so a no-weight-gain model gives a better fit. Hence, my doctor is wrong and I'm not gaining weight.

    Time for my after-dinner-snack!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Impressive - that Bergquist reference is to a newspaper article, as opposed to one of those inaccurate and distorted crony-reviewed journal papers. That's how you know that this is Sound Science.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Endorphin Monkey3 April 2011 16:08

    It isn't just IPCC forecasts that are wrong. Most forecasts are wrong. A really boring book I had to read said that forecasts are tainted by ideology, which is what the IPCC falls prey to. It should be noted that the purest form of free-market capitalism and infinite individual liberty is not an ideology. It is moral virtue.

    Another problem with forecasts: the moment they are published, external forces will damage the pre-conditions for their success. Armstrong carefully selected some left-wing predictions that were wrong, and singled out the prediction that DDT causes cancer. One reason that forecast was wrong was because government meddlers reduced public exposure to DDT based on the forecast, preventing the forecast from coming true. The forecast should have been kept secret, and a high level of DDT exposure continued, thereby increasing the chances of forecast success. And if you keep a forecast a secret, why bother forecasting in the first place. So why bother researching a possible DDT-cancer link if you have to keep your findings secret.

    The bonus is that way each individual would be free to independently scientifically test for a DDT-cancer connection, and then decide for themselves whether to protect their family from DDT.

    Because of ideological, government and do-gooder contamination of the forecasting process, "scientific" forecasts do no better than chance at predicting the future. Therefore forecasting of any kind is not cost-effective and should be stopped immediately. Public policy should continue to be based, as it is now, on guess-work, rumours, accusations, finger-pointing and the band-wagon effect.

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  6. The GCM's forgot about convection.3 April 2011 16:27

    Exactly.

    It's like no one at the ICCPC ever heard of Mocha's raiser.

    Thank you Dr. Armstrong for exposing this fraud.

    ReplyDelete
  7. This is another final nail breakthrough in the bloated coffin of climate science. It's so refreshing to have some solid science from the likes of Dr. Armstrong. And kudos for sidestepping the warmist mafia and getting the far too infrequently heard from Dr. Soon into a peer reviewed journal. Dr. Watts should take note.

    But some caution is still required. After all the gravy-trainers correctly guessed that their dishonesty would eventually be called out and they'd have to change the name from Global Warming to Climate Change and were careful to have all the paperwork already pre-planted.

    They'd never have gotten funding if they'd originally used that name because obviously climate changes all the time. Daily, in fact.

    Or perhaps the Internal Panel of Lucky Guesses would be more fitting and honest of those frauds.

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  8. It's about time that someone spoke up about the evidence-based models of future climate.

    I have had evidence for the last 50 years that in 100 years time the world will be cooler. I retrieved a time capsule from the future that contained actual temperature measures of the global temperature in 2111. The time capsule had been buried in ice on Pine Island Glacier and washed up during high tide on Washington DC Beach on the 6 June 2161, where I collected it.

    I then took the time capsule back to the present (when Washington Beach no longer existed).

    The actual evidence of temperature in 2111 was signed and sealed by a forecaster by the name of J Scott Armstrong III.

    That is irrefutable incontrovertible proof of SIMPLE evidence-based forecasting of the future with HARD EVIDENCE.

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  9. Benny: in fact, your doctor is probably a lying fraud. After all, your weight changes all the time due to your natural cycle of water content. You won't hear about that from those fraudsters in the medical and scale-manufacture industries, though!

    Basically, I would expect that your weight will fall in the future - indeed, you're losing weight right now as part of the short term fluctuations which cause all of the so-called 'long term' change.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Benny Rumblebelly4 April 2011 00:24

    You are so right, Joel. As a matter of fact, I just went to the loo and afterwards I had lost 3 pounds!

    Now, where is that darn toilet sucker....

    ReplyDelete
  11. Benny Rumblebelly4 April 2011 00:47

    Darn, I just had a couple of slices of ham, and now I'm up 2 pounds.
    Well, that just proves that weight is a pointless entity. It cannot be measured accurately. Maybe congress will call me as an expert witness next time.

    Sorry, got to wash my hands after that plumbing incident.

    ReplyDelete
  12. You were cherrypicking quotes from the article. The conclusion of Armstrongs article is not only that "the 1851 IPCC loses'. This wouldn't be a surprising conclusion. In fact, the chance that the IPCC loses is 50,0%. That follows from a mere statistical analysis: there are two possibilities (IPCC loses OR IPCC wins), so the chance for each option is 100,0 / 2 = 50,0%.

    The REAL reason why Armstrong does a superb job is by pointing to the fact THAT IPCC IS USING SCIENTIFIC DATA TO ESTABLISH THEIR MODEL:

    "Note that the IPCC forecast had the benefit of using these data in preparing the forecasts. Thus, it had an advantage over the no-change model."

    Can you imagine that? THEY USE DATA. And still, they can't win against a no-change model.

    One more minor remark: I have developped a forecasting model predicting a 0.001°C/year temperature rise by eye balling. Starting from 1851 (-0.3°), this gives a -0.2° anomaly in 1951... which is EXACTLY the value in 1951! This demonstrates the robustness of eyeballing. And I think I begin to understand the Principles of Forecasting!

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  13. Benny Rumblebelly4 April 2011 06:20

    fcu jy7.9.l+duhgipp------------------p-nfffffp.

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  14. Benny Rumblebelly4 April 2011 06:21

    Sorry about that - just happened to fall asleep on the keyboard.

    Time for breakfast!

    ReplyDelete
  15. Baron von Monckhofen5 April 2011 00:55

    Anonymous,
    Good point about IPCC using data. Obviously they wouldn't stand a chance if they were not cheating like that. The IPCC models are just pure fidgets of their overheated communist-fascist imaginations, and they have to put in a lot of "data" and "physics" and stuff to make them work at all.

    Which they don't, as the abject failure of the 1851 IPCC proves! That's because they are not based on empirical science, but political constructions!

    ReplyDelete
  16. "Sounds right to me. And of course Armstrong is right, he was after-all the first man on the moon."

    Of course, this is what the Eco-Nazis at NASA would have us believe...

    ReplyDelete
  17. Benny Rumblebelly5 April 2011 10:16

    I thought Armstrong was a bicyclist. How the hell did he manage to bicycle to the moon? Doping?

    Do they think I'm an idiot? No, it has to be a conspiracy!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Bjurn Humbug6 April 2011 13:51

    And of course Armstrong is right, he was after-all the first man on the moon.

    AND he won seven Tour de Frances. Take that, Schmidt!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Why can't they make bicyclig easier - like put an engine on it or something?

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  20. Why do marketing climatologists like Dr. Armstrong use cultist, derogatory attributes such as ‘warming alarming’ and why do they cooperate with aerospace engineers such as Willie Soon.

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  21. Actually I think that the paper is a conspiracy to thin the ranks of the alarmists by causing them to die laughing.

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  26. Which they don't, as the abject failure of the 1851 IPCC proves! That's because they are not based on empirical science, but political constructions!

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  28. "There have even been claims that human activity has been causing global warming for at least 5000 years (Bergquist, 2008)."

    With 0.03 degrees warming per year in 5000 years that would be ... a lot of warming predicted by the bronze-age IPCC!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Good point about IPCC using data. Obviously they wouldn't stand a chance if they were not cheating like that. The IPCC models are just pure fidgets of their overheated communist-fascist imaginations, and they have to put in a lot of "data" and "physics" and stuff to make them work at all.

    Which they don't, as the abject failure of the 1851 IPCC proves! That's because they are not based on empirical science, but political constructions!

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  65. Exactly.

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