Saturday, 18 April 2009

How Not To Measure Temperature Part 1

A temperature measuring satellite in orbit. There are many unaddressed questions concerning the ability and placement of such satellites to accurately measure temperature.

For the last 30 years the temperature of the atmosphere has been measured by Microwave Sounding Units (MSUs) on orbiting satellites. This record purports to show warming since 1979, but as we shall find out much of this warming is suspicious due to adjustments made on the raw data and possible measurement biases.

The Satellite Temperature Record

Source: UAH monthly temperature record (dec 1978-may 2008). Graph truncated at May 2008 for analytical reasons which are beyond the scope of this post.

As well grounded climate skeptic bloggers we immediately become suspicious of this record because it shows a warming trend. We know that the surface record shows only Urban Heat Island bias and AC Unit Warming bias in this period. Yet neither of these effects will be picked up by satellites, so why do the satellites still show warming? Something is wrong.

The #1 tool of the avid skeptic is imagination. So lets put our imagination to use and gather together some seeds of doubt. With luck some of these seeds will survive to grow into full blown talking points.

Data is adjusted before release

Adjusting data is not scientific. In engineering if an instrument has failings then you shouldn't just patch over that using a series of so-called "adjustments", you should address the root problems and make a better instrument. Could it be that the warming in the satellite records is just an artifact of adjustments? Could be! Great we have discovered an in-road to a major source of doubt.

Questions that are unanswered: What are these so-called adjustments? How are they made? Why are they made? Why haven't I seen these adjustments? Why doesn't the IPCC mention them? Why haven't I read about them in the media? Is it possible that the satellite data has just become a complicated mess that makes no real sense?

How do ground radio and microwave transmissions affect the readings?

Could the increase in ground radio and microwave transmissions in the post-war boom make the atmosphere look like it's warmer even if it is not? Nothing is mentioned of this on any of the satellite sites suggesting that a potentially significant cause of the recent warming is being ignored, dismissed out of hand or the "experts" simply haven't thought of it.
As a side note, it's an interesting thought that if the satellite scientists were to admit that satellites cannot measure temperature accurately they would lose their funding. Note I am not making any accusations here. Feel free to speculate on this in the comments though.

How do nearby satellites and orbitting debris affect the satellite measurements?

In recent years the satellite traffic in orbit has become increasingly busy. Only this February two satellites collided over Siberia: http://origin.foxnews.com/wires/2009Feb11/0,4670,SatelliteCollision,00.html

Satellites reflect solar energy and emit radio transmissions. Also there will be other effects that science does not yet understand because science understands little. All of this could have the effect of biasing sensitive satellite instruments such as the MSUs. It stands to reason that the number of satellites have increased since the 1970s and so this potential warming effect has increased. Again there is no mention of this on any of the satellite temperature sites or in the mainstream media.

Empirical evidence of Satellite warming bias - Satellites measured too much warming during the 1998 El Nino

Source: UAH satellite temperature vs GISS surface temperature, adjusted to the same baseline.

There is real warming (briefly) during a pacific El Nino event. But the satellite records show about 0.4C more warming than the surface records. This suggests they are exagerating any temperature rise, including the long term trend.

Now once we have discovered a problem like this, the correct course of action is to adjust the satellite temperature record to correctly take this into account. If we do this (dropping the trend down by 0.4C) then virtually all of the warming of the past 30 years in the satellite records is wiped out. We are obviously getting closer to the truth here.

Conclusion

Here I have cast a lot of doubt on the satellite record simply by using my imagination. It is quite plausible that the actual temperature of the atmosphere has not increased since 1979. In fact taking all possible factors into account the real temperature of the atmosphere may have fallen drastically since 1979.
This is by no means a completed task. I will come back to this topic in later posts (this is just Part 1) and show how we can cast more doubt. In particular I believe photos of satellites, both on the ground before launch and in orbit, can be pored over and fuel further speculation.

271 comments:

  1. As a side note, it's an interesting thought that if the satellite scientists were to admit that satellites cannot measure temperature accurately they would lose their funding. Note I am not making any accusations here. Feel free to speculate on this in the comments though.You are right. I love this site. You should write a post about how the alarmist "scientists" deceive the media to get $1000000000's of hard-earned taxpayer money while the good folk at free market think tanks volunteer their time to try to get the politicians to stop this madness. I think we need more teabagging to drive some sense into this country.

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  2. Coeruleus,

    Good thought about the scientists - and I'm glad you didn't take the lazy shortcut of writing "$10^9". Thanks to Inferno for pointing this out in a previous post!

    ReplyDelete
  3. I think you're right. One thing that is certain to influence the measurements is that space is cold. Very, very, cold.

    That is going to make the temperature of the earth seem a lot warmer.

    ReplyDelete
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  4. Another nail in the coffin of manmade global warming!

    ReplyDelete
  5. According to global warming AGW theory, so-called greenhouse gasses trap the heat, preventing it from leaving earth. Therefore, the satellites should measure less heat, not more. The satellite temperature graphs should point down, but they are in fact pointing up. Global warming is disproved by the very data that was thought to prove it!

    ReplyDelete
  6. It is worth mentioning, that the temperature data of the Hadley Centre by itself disprove global warming. In February 1878 the global temperature anomaly (SST + land stations) was 0.364 degrees Celsius. 131 years later in February 2009 it was 0.356 degrees. That is no warming, it is a cooling of 0.008 degress! The difference between the coldest and the warmest months (January 1893 and February 1998) was 1.719 degrees. The earth is not warming, the temperature just fluctuates, and the more, the longer the record is. The longer the record, the higher the standard deviation. You can show this, when you calculate the standard deviation for a cumulating number of years starting at the beginning of the data set. For 1850 - 1900 the standard deviation is about 0.12. For 1850 - 2008 it is about 0.25 - it doubled within about 100 years. So 2100 it should double again. This means, the highest difference between months will not be 1.7 but 3.4 degrees. From this you can approximate, that in 2100 the global temperature perhaps may show by coincidence an anomaly of 3 degrees, but it is just natural fluctuation.
    For the satellites there is a clear explanation for the warming: it is orbital decay. Satellites measure the radiation of a certain layer of the atmosphere and deduce the temperature from this via Stefan-Boltzmann law (roughly). Because of friction with molecules of the earth atmosphere the satellites slow down and descent to lower altitudes. Therefore, they measure the radiation of lower atmospheric layers. However, at a lower altitude air is warmer. So we don't see a warming atmosphere, we just see the orbital decay of the satellites. At El Nino events the pressure of the air increases due to higher evaporation from the warming pacific. Then the orbital decay becomes stronger. That is the reason, the satellites show a stronger warming signal at the especially strong El Nino 1998.
    As the saying goes - a little knowledge is a useful thing. Go on with the good work.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Great post, you should publish this! Don't expect to get published in the politically correct journals though.
    If only the congress had access to this kind of knowledge. Right now they're being fed with the AGW hoax from the "scientists". Sad times.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Perhaps you could set up the "Satellite Station Project" and explore all the siting and other issues that lead to these sorts of deep distortions.

    Of course this would be easier with NASA co-operation but they appear to be part of the AGW hoax. On the other hand, there are many fewer satellite stations than surface stations to be examined.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AGW will eventually go the way of the pet rock and the Macarena. And just like those fads, not fast enough to suit me.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I guess none of these AGW freakout sandal-wearing types has ever noticed that the ol' blue marble was like a bazillion degrees (and that's just in Centigrade) about 10 billion years ago and is nowhere near that hot now, except maybe in like Death Valley and down toward the bottom of volcanoes and whatnot. What a bunch of whack jobs.

    ReplyDelete
  11. p.s. I didn't mean to imply that I personally had noticed how hot it was 10 billion years ago, or at the bottom of volcanoes for that matter, because I wasn't at either, but this is reliably reported in the Reader's Digest Planet Earth series (condensed version) and also one of the Star Trek episodes talked about it I think.

    ReplyDelete
  12. p.p.s I also didn't mean to imply anything negative about either Death Valley or scum-sucking, leftist hippie sandal wearing types. Nor Al Gore. Nor the Centigrade scale, which is perfectly workable if you're in like Europe or something.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Excellent post. Notice how the satellite temp reading appears to lag the surface reading. As we know, MSU satellites are geosynchronous, and are hit by photons from the sun BEFORE the photons hit Earth. So clearly the satellite readings are false, as any change in temperature must happen at the satellite prior to a similar change on Earth. Popperian science demands that only one falsification is enough to destroy the whole theory. Therefore, AGW is false.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Yeah, you should ask James Hansen to publish the locations of those satellites for the last 30 years. And if they refuse (which they will) they've got something to hide.

    You should also note that in the 1970s everyone was talking about global cooling, and then they put satellites up to 'measure' temperature, and the earth started 'warming'. Coincidence? I think not, as you have proved.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I may be wrong but can't I see air con fans on that satellite?

    ReplyDelete
  16. I'm working on an analysis of satellite data which demonstrates that it has been driven by movements on the Rio de Janeiro stock market. I'd be happy to do a guest post on this.

    ReplyDelete
  17. George: "Yeah, you should ask James Hansen to publish the locations of those satellites for the last 30 years. And if they refuse (which they will) they've got something to hide."

    Well I will just throw a freedom of information requests at them.

    Why should they be allowed to dodge my Blog posts? Given my blog is accessibly to anyone with an internet connection (something I am sure they have at NASA!) there is frankly no excuse to ignore my challenges is there? If they can't put aside at least an hour a day to deal with my concerns that just isn't on. You are right they would be hiding something.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Arm Chair Climate Expert23 April 2009 at 17:48

    I counted the pixels that make up the stars on that photo. They make up 0.01% of the entire backdrop.

    Now what is the surface temperature of a star?

    About 6,000 degrees celcius. So I estimate that the starry backdrop is causing a 0.6 degree increase in the temperature of these sensors.

    This equals the entire warming of the 20th century, so clearly the warming measurements are simply a result of satellite sensors being sited too close to the stars.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Arm Chair said: "clearly the warming measurements are simply a result of satellite sensors being sited too close to the stars"

    Now we're getting somewhere! Any volunteers to do siting audits of satellites?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Thanks to Inferno for starting this welcome addition to the blogosciencisphere, keep on posting entries of this quality and you must be a frontrunner for Science Blog of the Year. I have access to a bank of about 50 PCs where I work and as each machine can 'vote' once every day for about a fortnight I reckon I could push about 700 votes your way. That should get the point across to the alarmists and there so-called 'sience'! Let's Go!

    I am willing to write guest posts on what for me are the 2 key pieces of evidence that surely expose the hoaxical nature of the AGW fraud. The first is the tiny size of the 'correction' that climate siencetists subtract from there measurements to cater for the fact that most of there stations are in the middle of big cities. It is less than 0.1 Farnheit! That's nuts, I have driven across my city (at night so as to avoid data corruption from the tailpipes of other veercles) with a high resolution thermometer and datalogger strapped to my car and the temperature went up by 5 Centigrade (It was about the same in Celsius). That's 41 degrees Fahrenhite! I think we can all see what a realistic correction would do to Global Warming. We should organise some volunteers to drive across there towns with thermometers and publish the actual size of the Urban Heat Isthmus effect,

    The second key piece of evidence is obvious: Al Gore lives in a big house. Need I say more?

    ReplyDelete
  21. Phil, please don't besmirch the integrity of this site with your offers to game the system of science blog voting. That's how you warmers deal with all your data, isn't it?

    And anyone can spot the flaw in your data collection technique: you're failing to register the cooling effect of air flowing over your thermometer as you drive. The uhi warming effect is therefore even greater than your suppressed figures would show, I would imagine by a significant amount. I may be a retired industrial chemical engineer, but I can tell that you climate guys don't know what you're doing.

    ReplyDelete
  22. @Anon 4/23 11:39 - There is an AC on that satellite, I see it too! It’s right between the Stevenson screen and the barbeque, next to the parking lot!

    arch stanton

    ReplyDelete
  23. Despite their own numbers proving them wrong, the Alarmists continue to practice their “religion”.

    You can lead a horse to knowledge, but you can’t make him think.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Wait, if the satellites overstated the El Nino warming in 1998, just think how much they could have overstated the warmth of all the years since then, which they claim haven't been quite as warm! I think the scientists from the 70s who all agreed we were headed for global cooling and a new ice age were on to something.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Now, I'm not an expert, but I've always wondered if they accounted for the changing heat on satellites as they drift out of sun-side to night-side. The expansion and contraction of instruments surely has an effect on the readings. If the orbit of satellites is such that (overall) they spend more time day-side, then this could possibly introduce a warming bias. If succesive MSU orbits have brought them more into the light, so to speak, then this might account for a warming bias. I've seen nothing in the "literature" on it. It's amazing how narrow the focus can be for pro-AGW scientists and commentators. They seem to have a serious deficiency in imagination and creative thinking.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Ha. The satellites are so close together they're reading each other's temperatures and taking each other's pictures!

    " ... you can see another satellite that was passing underneath GeoEye’s satellite as the photo was being taken."

    http://nielsenhayden.com/ml-art/2009_inaug_satpic.jpg

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  29. Excellent post. Notice how the satellite temp reading appears to lag the surface reading. As we know, MSU satellites are geosynchronous, and are hit by photons from the sun BEFORE the photons hit Earth. So clearly the satellite readings are false, as any change in temperature must happen at the satellite prior to a similar change on Earth. Popperian science demands that only one falsification is enough to destroy the whole theory. Therefore, AGW is false.

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  32. Another blatant example of government funded pseudo-science. Don't you warmistas ever study physics. Ever hear of a little thing called gravity? I guess not.

    Any so-called weather satellite is subject to the massive gravitational pull of the earth which draws it closer and closer to the ground every second. This throws off all the measurements because all the microwaves are closer. Also the satellite gets warmer since it is closer to the radiation reflected from the earth's cloud cover.

    Then it fires its little engines to get back up to the intial orbit and all the unused rocket fuel and vapors surround the sensors and warm it even more.

    Finally moving up in altitude gets the satellite closer to the sun where it is even warmer thanks to solar insolation.

    It's just basic physics which is why your graphs are so bad.

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