How Not To Measure Temperature Part 1

A temperature measuring satellite in orbit. There are many unaddressed questions concerning the ability and placement of such satellites to accurately measure temperature.

For the last 30 years the temperature of the atmosphere has been measured by Microwave Sounding Units (MSUs) on orbiting satellites. This record purports to show warming since 1979, but as we shall find out much of this warming is suspicious due to adjustments made on the raw data and possible measurement biases.

The Satellite Temperature Record

Source: UAH monthly temperature record (dec 1978-may 2008). Graph truncated at May 2008 for analytical reasons which are beyond the scope of this post.

As well grounded climate skeptic bloggers we immediately become suspicious of this record because it shows a warming trend. We know that the surface record shows only Urban Heat Island bias and AC Unit Warming bias in this period. Yet neither of these effects will be picked up by satellites, so why do the satellites still show warming? Something is wrong.

The #1 tool of the avid skeptic is imagination. So lets put our imagination to use and gather together some seeds of doubt. With luck some of these seeds will survive to grow into full blown talking points.

Data is adjusted before release

Adjusting data is not scientific. In engineering if an instrument has failings then you shouldn't just patch over that using a series of so-called "adjustments", you should address the root problems and make a better instrument. Could it be that the warming in the satellite records is just an artifact of adjustments? Could be! Great we have discovered an in-road to a major source of doubt.

Questions that are unanswered: What are these so-called adjustments? How are they made? Why are they made? Why haven't I seen these adjustments? Why doesn't the IPCC mention them? Why haven't I read about them in the media? Is it possible that the satellite data has just become a complicated mess that makes no real sense?

How do ground radio and microwave transmissions affect the readings?

Could the increase in ground radio and microwave transmissions in the post-war boom make the atmosphere look like it's warmer even if it is not? Nothing is mentioned of this on any of the satellite sites suggesting that a potentially significant cause of the recent warming is being ignored, dismissed out of hand or the "experts" simply haven't thought of it.

As a side note, it's an interesting thought that if the satellite scientists were to admit that satellites cannot measure temperature accurately they would lose their funding. Note I am not making any accusations here. Feel free to speculate on this in the comments though.

How do nearby satellites and orbitting debris affect the satellite measurements?

In recent years the satellite traffic in orbit has become increasingly busy. Only this February two satellites collided over Siberia: http://origin.foxnews.com/wires/2009Feb11/0,4670,SatelliteCollision,00.html

Satellites reflect solar energy and emit radio transmissions. Also there will be other effects that science does not yet understand because science understands little. All of this could have the effect of biasing sensitive satellite instruments such as the MSUs. It stands to reason that the number of satellites have increased since the 1970s and so this potential warming effect has increased. Again there is no mention of this on any of the satellite temperature sites or in the mainstream media.

Empirical evidence of Satellite warming bias - Satellites measured too much warming during the 1998 El Nino

Source: UAH satellite temperature vs GISS surface temperature, adjusted to the same baseline.

There is real warming (briefly) during a pacific El Nino event. But the satellite records show about 0.4C more warming than the surface records. This suggests they are exagerating any temperature rise, including the long term trend.

Now once we have discovered a problem like this, the correct course of action is to adjust the satellite temperature record to correctly take this into account. If we do this (dropping the trend down by 0.4C) then virtually all of the warming of the past 30 years in the satellite records is wiped out. We are obviously getting closer to the truth here.

Conclusion

Here I have cast a lot of doubt on the satellite record simply by using my imagination. It is quite plausible that the actual temperature of the atmosphere has not increased since 1979. In fact taking all possible factors into account the real temperature of the atmosphere may have fallen drastically since 1979.

This is by no means a completed task. I will come back to this topic in later posts (this is just Part 1) and show how we can cast more doubt. In particular I believe photos of satellites, both on the ground before launch and in orbit, can be pored over and fuel further speculation.