Saturday, 18 April 2009

CO2 levels may have been over 2000ppm in 1200AD

Another inconvenient truth for warmists. New research suggests that the co2 level of the atmosphere was a lot higher during the Medieval Warm Period than today.

First lets look at a paper that shaped the modern view of past co2 levels.

180 Years of atmospheric CO2 Gas Analysis by Chemical Methods, published in the prestigous Journal "Energy and Environment" by Dr Ernst-Georg Beck.

http://www.biokurs.de/treibhaus/180CO2_supp.htm

The paper is also covered in the media:
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/6855

Below I have reproduced some of the data from this study for the purpose of scientific analysis. This data shows that co2 levels were much higher than today in 1940 and 1827:




There is no question over the accuracy of the earlier measurements.

CO2 levels are caused by temperature changes

This is to be expected because ice core measurements show that co2 levels rise happens 800 years after temperature levels rise. So temperature rise causes co2 rise, not the otherway round. http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming/ice-core-graph/

This is because the oceans release more co2 when they get warmer, and less when they get cooler. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/21/recent-ocean-heat-and-mlo-co2-trends/

Lets look at the individual periods to demonstrate this:

The 19th century decline in CO2

The drop in co2 in the early 19th century to the start of the 20th century was most likely caused by cooling from the little ice age.

The rise and peak of co2 around 1940

This correlates with the warmest year on record being in 1934: http://www.dailytech.com/Blogger+finds+Y2K+bug+in+NASA+Climate+Data/article8383.htm

Rise in co2 since 1960

While the earlier measurements are beyond questioning, the measurements since 1960 are deeply uncertain. This modern measurement period began warmists started measuring co2 at Mauna Loa in Hawaii. This Mauna Loa sensor reports the gradual co2 rise you see in the graph.

There is just one problem with that:


Mauna Loa is on a Volcano!

That's right, they could have picked anywhere in the world but warmists chose to put the co2 sensor on top of one of the biggest volcanoes in the world! No wonder it shows a rise in co2!


The Medieval Warm Period

Now lets look at a period not covered by the graph, but a period we know was a lot warmer than today. The medieval warm period occured some time in the past around medieval times. Ie 1200AD.

The scientific consensus is that in 1200AD the climate was excruciatingly hot. Plagues and disease swamped the world and people were dying of heat exhaustion. The situation got so bad that the Vikings moved to a large snow covered island north of Iceland to escape the heat. The ice on this island subsequently melted and so the Vikings called it Greenland. Greenland soon became the wine and farming capital of the world.

Didn't last though. Eventually the climate shifted back again and the Vikings were wiped out by ice.

Putting It All Together

Given we know warming causes co2 levels to rise and we know it was very much warmer during the medieval warm period than today, it would be no suprise to find that co2 levels were far higher during the medieval warm period. We can estimate how much higher they were by projecting the co2 fall from the 19th to early 20th century back in time:



The answer is that based on the best science available, co2 levels may have been over 2000ppm in 1200AD! Is it coincidence that 1200AD was 800 years ago? Recall the fact mentioned earlier: "ice core measurements show that co2 levels rise happens 800 years after temperature levels rise". Everything is fitting into place and this last piece seems to complete the puzzle.

Conclusion

It has been shown that co2 levels could have been over 5 times higher just 800 years ago. If this is the case a doubling of co2 is proven to not cause any significant warming and any ideas for more taxes should be immediately abandoned.

102 comments:

  1. Another nail in the coffin of manmade global warming!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Will Greenland become a wine producing region again? Maybe it will get too hot in France to grow grapes - wouldn't that be ironic? After all, France was the epicenter of the Great Medieval Drought. I say, Let them eat cake!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Not only are there reasons to question the measurements, there are reasons to question where they were made. Beck is old news.


    HereHereHereHereThis

    *Quiescent Outgassing of Mauna Loa Volcano 1958-1994 *

    /Steven Ryan /
    /ryan@mloha.mlo.hawaii.gov/
    /Mauna Loa Observatory/
    /Hilo, Hawaii/

    which shows the effect of volcanic outgassing is zilch

    ReplyDelete
  4. If you're unimpressed by the peer-reviewed journals, why call on a "prestigious" one? What is a prestigious journal exactly?

    ReplyDelete
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  5. Great analysis, thanks! Particularly liked your projection of the CO2 levels back in time to get 2,000ppm in 1,200 AD based on the results of Beck's highly acclaimed research.

    Why don't you go further and use your method to project CO2 levels to the glacial maximums starting with the last one ~20k years ago? Not only numbers will be surely turn out high but they will be rising going back in time. How soon will you hit 1,000,000ppm, 10,000,000ppm? That will surely by the (very) final nail in the coffin of whole global warming theory: at 1,000,000ppm not only the Earth did not boil, life actually thrived!

    And you are right of course to ignore CO2 concentration estimates from the ice cores. Why not? It is very much in line with the true sceptic's general approach to pick and choose what to believe (warming-CO2-rise lag) and what not to believe (tight coupling between CO2 and temperature).

    As you say: "When so-called "experts" in their "peer reviewed journals" say one thing, we dare the impossible and find imaginative ways to believe something else entirely."

    ReplyDelete
  6. This is wonderful. The whole AGW-scam that wants to rob us of our liberty and tax money is falling apart much quicker than I expected. Al Gore must be going bananas. God bless the cooling!

    I'll be coming here more often. Keep up the good work and I'll donate!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Wow! This work is so good, I bet that Dr. Spencer will be glad to have you do your post-doc work with him! Congratulations!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Concerning “About” (home page) – Galileo was a skeptic (not a denier). He was very critical of all evidence. If he were alive today he would certainly not refer to Energy and Environment as a “prestigious journal”, cite WUWT as an authoritative source or trot out theories long shown to be in error or irrelevant. Deniers have no qualm doing these things however.

    OTOH - good blog name.

    arch stanton

    ReplyDelete
  9. I am not sure... the green and blue lines seem to go down at the end?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Love this site, give it to the socialist One-worlders and their flat-earth Gorenomics and Hansenology.

    If a tree falls in the forest does it make for sound science?

    ReplyDelete
  11. You neglected to point out that 800 is almost exactly half of 1500 years.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Well done! Another interesting conclusion is that a few hundred years ago, Mauna Loa was not a volcano.

    ReplyDelete
  13. CapitalClimate: "You neglected to point out that 800 is almost exactly half of 1500 years"

    Good point, that's the kind of common sense 'putting the pieces together' that mainstream science is lacking these days.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I'll bet you didn't take into account the full-moon effect either.

    ReplyDelete
  15. They have actually found wine yards and little Viking chateaus in the Greenland ice. Here is some photographic evidence.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Here's another reason why the Mauna Loa measurements are no good: The Japanese have been taking advantage of the weakness of the dollar to buy up and develop property in Hawaii. I heard this from a weather guy who shows lots of maps and numbers and stuff on the teevee, so it must be true.

    ReplyDelete
  17. There's also reason to be skeptic about the modern CH4 meassurements. The warmist clowns running the station are turning more and more to a vegetarian diet, all in order to "save" the climate. Needless to say, all this causes serious amounts of methane outgassing, all biasing the modern records.

    ReplyDelete
  18. You probably missed the following brilliant comments, since they were at the ultra-librul commie-pinko-enviro-nazi George-Soros-Kyoto-loving WaPo. I hope you're able to attract some of this cutting-edge science here, where it obviously belongs.

    The problem is that journalists are gullible individuals who have no comprehension of how empirical science is conducted. The claim that carbon dioxide which comprises less than 400 parts per million in the atmosphere can have any impact on temperature makes no sense. The claim that CO2 can cause heating by trapping infrared radiation conflicts with established science in the form of an experiment conducted by R.W. Wood in 1909 which disproved the claim that trapping IR can cause heating in greenhouses or the atmosphere.

    Those who claim humans can control air temperature by manipulating minor gases are very much like the people who condemned Galileo for having the audacity to suggest that the human occupied planet earth was not the center of the universe. Real scientists recognize that the earth orbits the sun and variations in the sun's energy output, rather than minor changes in atmospheric gases, determines whether earth warms or cools.

    Climatology is at best only a primitive science that is to science what the Detroit Lions are to professional football.

    Posted by: reasonmclucus | April 22, 2009 4:54 AM

    "For example, the iconic "Keeling Curve," which shows that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have been increasing significantly since the 1950s, might give a climate scientist chills. It is perhaps the most famous image in the climate science story. However, members of the general public may be rather nonplussed by it, since the climate change implications of the chart are not immediately evident."

    Any real scientist would recognize that the fact temperatures went up and down during the same period indicates there is no correlation between increases in carbon dioxide and temperature change.
    Only graphs comparing solar output and temperature change have any correlation, although the impact tends to be delayed because 70% of earth is covered by water which changes temperature slower than land. This delay is reflected in daily temperature changes as represented by land breezes and sea breezes as well as seasonal variations and variations over the longer periods of solar output changes.

    Posted by: reasonmclucus | April 22, 2009 5:01 AM

    ReplyDelete
  19. CapitalClimate is rite!

    ReplyDelete
  20. McLucas is just the kind of out-of-the-box/off-the-wall thinker we need more of in science. Thank God the Internet makes this all possible.

    It would be easier to make a case that increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would reduce temperatures. Plants use CO2 to store solar energy in the form of chemical fonds [sic] of carbon molecules rather than converting it into heat. Plant covered areas do not become as hot as nearby areas that lack plant cover. Bare ground converts solar radiation to heat.

    Increasing the availability of CO2 means that plants can store more solar energy than is possible with current levels of CO2. Storing more solar energy would reduce the amount of solar energy converted to heat.

    About Me
    I'm a retired janitor who has 100 hours of graduate study beyond an M.A. in U.S. history. I'm a mathematician and a generalist who uses a systems approach to study human behavior and interaction with the environment. As a naive undergraduate in the 60's I switched from a study of math and physics because I thought politicians didn't know how to discover solutions to social problems. I didn't realize until later that they didn't really care about solving social problems. I'm a political maverick and a Vietnam Vet.

    ReplyDelete
  21. This is cutting edge research. I am so impressed with this blog. I smell a Nobel coming up to Denial Depot. Long may it reign as the leader of climate blogs!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Thanks for drawing attention to Beck's remarkable work! Not enough people know about papers like this that expose the global warming scam for the commie conspiracy it really is.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Please, please, please, tell me you have not had children ....

    ReplyDelete
  24. Quote:
    "Mauna Loa is on a Volcano!
    That's right, they could have picked anywhere in the world but warmists chose to put the co2 sensor on top of one of the biggest volcanoes in the world! No wonder it shows a rise in co2!"

    Obviously, I must discredit this article (as the ppm keeps going up steadily regardless of eruptions)!

    ReplyDelete
  25. Rather than making the statement that "acidification is so much more scary that less alkaline", you should make the statement that carbon dioxide makes the ocean LESS CAUSTIC.

    Then we can settle on more important questions like "what is the real age of the earth 6000 years give or take?

    What kind of dinosaur was the animal of choice of the profits? Is the earth round like the deviates claim, or is it just a trick with mirrors, and we're really all living in studio in Barcelona.

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  33. it is very interesting to know that scientists can determine or make an assumption on how the levels of CO2as a lot were higher during the Medieval Warm Period than today

    ReplyDelete
  34. Interesting...
    I have read many of the opposing and PRO comments above and just have a few comments on a a few of the subjects..

    First, here are some facts...
    NO ONE knows for sure what the CO2 levels were prior to the 19th century...Ice cores, coral, carbon...All assumptions!!

    Regardless if Mauna loa was a volcano a hundred years ago or not, there were DOZENS of volcanos in the area for thousands of years, and the Swiss proved that CO2 levels vary GREATLY in just a few hundred mile area! Sorry, but not an accurate measurement!

    "Pick and chose what to believe".....isn't that what BOTH sides are doing? Guess it's what you want to "pick".

    Anyone can base a conclusion on a combination of facts, but it takes common sense to decide if those combined facts are relevant to each other. Simply entering a bunch of facts into a computer and coming up with a computer model means NOTHING if the facts have no relevance to each other! This is why scientists disagree! You can have two PhD's from the same school in the same subject completely disagree with each other's findings. This is because of the lack of or presence of common sence.
    The best computers in the world ALL have one thing in common, NONE have the human traits of "Common Sense and reason". Therefore, relying on computers, and not humanity to solve problems is essentially removing all common sense and reason!

    Everyone has data, and it is all different, and they all swear it is all correct, therefore, the only conclusion I can come up with is it's all wrong!! For instance, the graph above shows CO2 at 481PPM in 1827...another GW page says it is currently 380 PPM and that is 25% higher thn ever recorded in history...including the ice core data....really...who's correct?? I especially like the research that blames the Native Americans for the Medieval Warm period and the incursion of Columbus for the Little Ice Age! Really??? People actually believe that!!?? ROTFLOL!!
    I base my decisions on what money was spent, agendas, grants and backgrounds of the scientists.
    Let's face it, there have been billions of dollars in grants to find a correlation between temperature and CO2...so...one would be reasonable to assume, the findings of these studies would conclude such...."you get what you pay for". Had there been billions to study the affects of the sun's activity, currents and solar tides, sunspots, the Maunder Minimum and magnetic pole locations during past and present temperature cycles, I'm positive, there would be an entirely different set of results and causes for "global warming...wait...that's changed to "Climate Change"...wait...That's too generic and the climate has been changing for centuries....let's call it "Disturbed Climate"....Yea...that's much better!.
    But who cares if the sun is causing it, we can't control that!
    The battle for grant money in the scientific community is fierce and lucrative!

    Believe what you want, You will not change my mind and I will not change yours. I am as stubborn as you! When you say people only believe the data they want, you also fall into that catagory "Anonymous"!

    Common sense and data says there is MUCH MUCH more to warming than CO2,asuming CO2 has much, if any affect at all! You should read the Ice Data yourself, in stead of just reading results! The actual data shows the average 800yr lag (plus or minus 600 years)and most GW scientists have acknowledged that, but their "educated response" has been..."things are different now"...really?? That's a scientific response??? Not very convincing.

    Galileo was a skeptic...he would be laughing his ass off at the GW scientists of today!


    BTW...I am NOT the anonymous posed earlier in this blog!

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  36. This is just due to Koyoto and the Bush recession reducing emissions thus proving AlGore is right! The global temperature trend has been flat so CO2 must not be rising. If the famous volcanoesMona Loa is the station where global CO2 is measured where does the second graph get it’s data from?

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  46. One aspect that is not being presented is volcanic venting. Tectonic activity causes about 107 cubic miles of ocean water and hundreds of cubic miles of ocean floor and crust to be subducted, and where it is subducted in one place, it is vented in another. This would explain why the 30 billion tons of anthropogenic CO2 appears to cause about 150 PPMA additional atmospheric levels over the 250 PPMA since the industrial revolution. It would mean that anthropogenic CO2 is 17 to 20 times more attributable to atmospheric CO2 levels than natural vented CO2 - it is not. How would the environment know the difference between anthropogenic and natural vented CO2?? It can't. Tectonic and volcanic activity increased around 1865, and is slowly increasing today. This would account for the rise in atmospheric CO2 levels to 385 PPMA, not because of anthropogenic CO2. It is an illusion that human activity (CO2 emissions) are causing atmospheric rise of CO2 since the volcanic and tectonic activity escalated in about 1865, just about the time of the industrial revolution. So beyond the fact that CO2 levels of 385 PPMA are verly slight volumes and have very little influence on temperatures, volcanic and tectonic activity has actually caused CO2 levels to rise, not anthropogenic CO2. This article shows this to be occurring.

    http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/home/9105-climate-change-paradox-current-co2-levels-are-not-of-anthropogenic-origins

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