I did not expect the upturn of the past few months. It doesn’t make sense to me. The La Nina has relaxed, but there is no El Nino. The sun is more active, but still is quieter than usual. There have been some decent volcanic eruptions. I see no reason for the upturn to be so steep, and am not inclined to see CO2 as the cause...
Commenter 'Caleb' at WUWT
I am also not inclined to see CO2 as the cause. I prefer for it not to make sense than to accept it could be CO2. 'Celeb' does however offer a way of "interpreting" this inconvenient turn of events as evidence of cooling:
When you are walking down a very foggy beach, how do you know a really big wave is coming, when you can’t see it? Is it not because the water draws back farther than usual? This upturn may just be the “water-drawing -back” before the “big wave” of a large downturn.
So no matter if global temperature heads up or down it's always defying those so-called scientists. This is the kind of outside-the-box denial that Denial Depot is all about.
That's not just out-of-the-box blog science, but it's out-of-the-upturned-box blog science. We're obviously approaching truthiness here!
ReplyDeleteJust so. And we can generalize to what is really a very simple and intuitive physical mechanism: We know there's going to be a big cooling dip in the very near future. The graph line is elastic *and* has reverse memory, which means that the future drop has artificially increased the current level. Case closed.
ReplyDeleteThis post is typical of the Denialist inconsistancies we're forced to read on this site.
ReplyDeleteAny reasonable person can see that the blue water-level line on the graph is going up causing a wave; so how can the "upturn" be "a water-drawing-back" and how can there be a "big wave of a large downturn"?
It must be something to do with the fog.
Cool project! And it looks soooo warm. I sure can use something like that in these parts of the woods :)
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DeleteNote also how the peaks in the curve are getting lower and lower. It was highest in 1998, but lower in 2010, and again lower now. I sense a worrying trend... Better get myself some warm socks!
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DeleteI've never really got the hang of graphs but it seems clear to me that the communist red line is overwhelmed at every turn by the freedom loving blue line, no matter how much it tries to wriggle and squirm.
ReplyDeleteAnd anyway everyone knows the climate is always changing. It was cold and foggy here this morning but has been warm and sunny this afternoon. Those climate "scientists" must think we're all dopes.
I'm a successful market trader and I know these patterns like the back of my er blackberry.
ReplyDeleteNow this chart is definitely following a head and shoulders top pattern, with a target temperature approaching the next ice age. In fact I will bet the rest of my Greek bonds on it.
I know that Inferno has made this point before, but it worth repeating: don't be constrained by warmist chronology.
ReplyDeleteBy using a monotonically increasing time axis, the warmists are hiding the decline.
It makes more sense to sort the temperature data into sequence, so that years with the same climate conditions and cosmic ray influences are grouped together.
When I tried this, I got a dramatic downward trend from left to right, clearly demonstrating the true sensitivity of the temperature to climate conditions. The greater the climate condition index, the lower the temperature. The correlation was remarkable.
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DeleteCaleb has trapped himself into explaining short-term fluctuations using real data and reasoning. Even the Climate Science Conspiracy says not to do that. After all, they're always piteously moaning about "long-term trends" and stuff like that. As a blog science commenter, Caleb should relax, go play with the dog and then come back and create an explanation that sounds pretty good to him and not tie himself in knots trying to over-explain it. Who knows? It might be right.
ReplyDeleteBut it doesn't really matter, does it. If you look at the x-axis you'll see that the range of temperature values over 32 years adds up to less than 1.5 degrees. Diddly squat! What's the difference between a sunny day and another sunny day 1.5 degrees warmer? Caleb! Your dog is sitting there watching you with a tennis ball in his mouth. Are you going to disappoint him just to argue on the Internet?
And grab a beer while you're at it.
I don't get why Caleb is sounding so unsure of himself. It doesn't matter if he expects a downturn in temps or not, since the warming is natural and good for us.
ReplyDeleteI am not inclined to see CO2 as the cause of the warming either. It is one of those cosmic coincidences that the warming cycle came during a period of increasing plant food emissions. Funny how the world works, eh?
So much Consensus here I don't know where to start http://j.mp/pHhkJk Studies find different reasons for global methane riddle
ReplyDeleteI can only commend Caleb for his reasonable attitude. As he says, the upturn has no reason to be so steep and really ought to be ashamed of itself.
ReplyDeleteYou're doing some great work here on this blog, but isn't true science supposed to be SIMPLE? Instead of putting up all these fancy graphs, can't you just give me easily digestible short statements for me to intellectually disarm all the treehugging ecofascists preaching to the public?
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ReplyDeleteBut you're using UAH satellite data! Surely you know that Spencer and Christy were forced to change their previously excellent interpretation (showing no warming of the mid-troposphere and no cooling of the stratosphere) by the so-called scientific community? They even had the nerve to publish the criticism in Nature. Typical -- and shame on you!
ReplyDeletep.s. now I'm getting the hang of this!
I'm sure you will get a much better idea if you watch Spencer's presentation at the AGU.
ReplyDeleteIt is all due to a still undiscovered natural variation in clouds that causes the PDO.
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It makes more sense to sort the temperature data into sequence, so that years with the same climate conditions and cosmic ray influences are grouped together.
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ReplyDeleteJust so. And we can generalize to what is really a very simple and intuitive physical mechanism: We know there's going to be a big cooling dip in the very near future. The graph line is elastic *and* has reverse memory, which means that the future drop has artificially increased the current level. Case closed.
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ReplyDeleteOh, hopefully the temperature would be much stable this year than the year before.
ReplyDeleteBut it doesn't really matter, does it. If you look at the x-axis you'll see that the range of temperature values over 32 years adds up to less than 1.5 degrees. Diddly squat! What's the difference between a sunny day and another sunny day 1.5 degrees warmer? Caleb! Your dog is sitting there watching you with a tennis ball in his mouth. Are you going to disappoint him just to argue on the Internet?
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