Monday, 21 September 2009

Climate Modeling. Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Pacman or GISS Model E? There is an analogy in there somewhere. Perhaps the ghosts are auditors and Pacman is a so-called "scientist" chasing and feeding off government funding grants. The big dots are IPCC award dinners.

As a Blogger I am uniquely placed to independently audit the role and application of computers in climate science. My expertize goes further though. I put together my home computer network with very little help from so-called IT "professionals" . I am fluent in the HTML programming language and have used the Ebay auctioning World Wide Web Internet Site on a number of occasions. I have also personally defeated the Chessmaster 3000. So I am a self-taught computer expert, sure, but enough of my CV, what about the wisdom I can offer you the reader?

A Brief Introduction to Fundamentals of the Computer (AKA Computer Science)

What is a computer? A computer is a tool. I am a lot like a computer; I can read fonts, perform arithmetic, etc. But computers don't understand politics or emotions. They can't understand when they are being misused by the UN to raise taxes for example. At least not yet, my knowledge of computers and futurology leads me to believe that by 2020 most computers will simply refuse to process false data.

So what does GIGO mean? It means "Garbage in Garbage out". To summarize a very complex and advanced concept, GIGO means if you feed bad numbers into the computer you will get bad numbers coming out. You can only get good output out if you put good input in. And if you put fiddled numbers into a computer what do you get out? Temperature records and so-called "climate models". Warmists rely on this quirk of computers to fabricate their false results.

For this reason computers should be used sparingly in science. By science I am of course referring to Real Science, not the modern "mainstream" corrupt version. Real science is universally recognized to involve real world experiments which anyone can understand. The kind that involve big instruments with straight forward names that do straight forward things. For example a thermometer, a telescope, a drill, an axe. From Newton to Galileo to Ernst Beck, real scientific progress has been made by scientists without resorting to computers to do their thinking for them. The use of computers in science is only justified in a few select cases:

  • To control scientific instruments (eg control a big telescope, display the output of a thermometer, activate an axe)

  • Drawing graphs of raw data (eg Excel, but this program can also be misused to "adjust" data)

  • Blogging (eg Blogspot, Wordpress)

Warmists however will tell you that computers can be used to prove things, that computers have mind of their own and "think" up new ideas and analyze existing ones. This is a strawman and completely wrong. Here are some things computers should not be used for:

  • Adjusting data.

  • Performing arithmetic. This is just lazy and introduces the possibility of something in computer science called User Error. The correct method is to write all your working out on paper, or if you must - use a calculator. This also helps with auditing.

  • Modeling. Computers cannot analyze ideas, it is folly to think the human mind is less capable than a machine in this regard.

Three Reasons Why Climate Cannot be Modeled


  1. Chaos Theory. Chaos Theory says the climate cannot be modeled unless the behavior of butterflies is taken into account (or anything of a similar size). As climate models cannot even take the behavior of entire countries into account, the whole concept of climate modelling is falsified by Chaos Theory. 

  2. The Heisenberg uncertainty principle. If we cannot even be certain where one particle is, how can we be certain of the position of clouds?

  3. Another reason that climate cannot be modeled is that the climate is just too complex for man to even comprehend, although admittedly I have come very close on a number of occasions.
The History of Climate Models

The early 1980s
In the early 1980s, cutting edge research on computer programming languages such as COBOL and FORTRAIN convinced researchers that virtual worlds could be simulated in computer code. "Computer modeling", as it later became known, would become the basis of a thriving video game industry providing entertainment (I use that word loosely) for kids. Some of the children weaned on video games would inevitably grow up to become the next generation of socialists and so it was only a matter of time until the technology was against us to raise taxes and damage the economy of the free world. The chosen method of the time was to use environmental issues as a proxy for the Soviet agenda [1]

The late 1980s
First to the plate was a little known environmental activist named James Hansen. A NASA employee at the time, Hansen wrote a video simulation of climate to claim an ice age was imminent. This claim subsequently melted as the real world confounded such simplistic notions by embarking on a natural warming cycle caused entirely by the Sun (not co2). In an effort to cover this up, environmentalists turned instead to apocalyptic claims that the warming was not natural and would wipe out life on Earth. The IPCC was born.

The early 1990s
The early 1990s saw a new computer operating system known as Linux emerge in the Soviet Union. It's goal was nothing short of establishing communism as the basis of software engineering by insisting that software should be free. Linux was launched in early 1991 to socialist acclaim, but thanks to the collapse of the Soviet Union and to a counter-attack by Microsoft's launch of Windows 3.1 in 1992, Linux never became a popular operating system. Once again the communist ideology was shown to fail in a Free Market system.

Linux still exists to this day, largely under the socialist inspired codename "Red hat". This operating system is used primarily today as a software piracy platform used by hackers drawn by it's promise of free source codes and lack of digital rights management. But it's secondary role is as a necessary prop for climate modeling.

It is perhaps possible that Climate Models using a certified Microsoft Windows Vista operating system would be largely immune to the figure-fiddling, number-fudging, adjustment-making of so-called "scientists". I don't know the intricacies of particular operating systems and their digital rights management support, but I do know that in the early 1990s a new wave of socialist "scientist" was fashioned in the dying embers of the Soviet Union. The dawn of the so-called "climate modeler". Working under the glare of socialist environmental organizations and with abundant funding from the British Government [1] these "climate modelers" would claim that computers proved warming was caused by man and more taxes were needed to stop it. Meanwhile the globe was warming. Slight warming since the 70s was being caused entirely by SOI and ENSO (not co2).

The early 2000s
Even though Hansen's earlier 1988 prediction was of global cooling, he nevertheless put in a contingency plan - a Y2K bug which would go off in the year 2000 and result in 1998 to be the warmest year in history. Despite this attempt the ruse was spotted by Blog Scientists and a forced correction was made so that the actual warmest year on record is now 1934. Meanwhile the modest warming since the 70s caused entirely by GCR induced cloud changes (not co2) suddenly ended. Around the same time the politician "Al" "Gore" flew onto the scene in his jumbo jet with his "documentary", An Inconvenient "Truth".

The Sorry State Of Climate Modeling Today

Climate modeling today is in flux. The IPCC climate model has been falsified dozens of times. Let me unleash some words: Water, air, earth, wind, clouds, waves, ice, tides, sand, snow, grass, north, south, east, west, biological reproduction, earthquakes. It is not clear which, if any of these words are included in the so-called "climate models" and yet all of them are part of our Earth and therefore part of our climate. If I don't know what models contain how can we trust them to correctly predict future climate?

My Demands


  1. I hereby demand the IPCC rewrite it's climate model in a modern programming language such as Visual Basic or Java Script for auditing purposes.

  2. I hereby demand all data files held on IPCC computers are released immediately to wordpress and blogspot so they can be directly accessed by Blog Scientists.

If my demands are not met I may be forced to obtain this data through Freedom of Information requests and YouTube Takedowns.

[1] http://frankbi.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/conspiracy-20080524.gif


30 comments:

  1. Dr Inferno,

    As usual you have sliced through all the warmist arguments with the clarity of a blowtorch wielded by a samurai monk. Well done on this excellent post! If the warmists are so sure of their models, then they would have nothing to fear from answering your Freedom of Information requests or from being audited. The fact that they are so evasive when questioned, and write their "models" in old-fashioned computer languages such as FORTRAIN, is YANITAGWC (Yet Another Nail In The Anthropogenic Global Warming Coffin).

    I for one will stand proud with you and your supporters such as Professor Malvolio. We are unafraid to blog with our real names. We are in touch with the real world, not computer "simulations". If necessary, or even in some cases if not, we will willingly shoot moose and other large animals.

    In Peace,
    Dirk

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dr. Inferno,

    Thank you for the enlightening post. I, for one, do not know much about "climate modeling" and just assumed it had something to do with the socialist fashion industry (the "fashionistas", "super models", and "modeling careers"). So I learned a lot reading your post.

    I do know something about "Linux" and other similar Communist conspiracies, so it should come as no surprise that it is also behind the AGW myth. I have even read some reports that the Pentagon itself has been forced to use "Linux", probably on orders of that Socialist fornicator, Clinton.

    Anyway, there was a lot of interesting information there and I learned a lot. Please keep up the great work. These people really have to understand that the real climate is controlled by God and only He can make it warmer or cooler and we have no right to question His wisdom in this respect. It is truly amazing how these Islamofascists and their little toy models have been so successful at bamboozling so many people. Perhaps I should get some glue and go buy a model kit myself, perhaps of a car or airplane; a more enjoyable model that of the "climate." What would that even look like?

    Patriotically yours,
    Prof. Malvolio

    ReplyDelete
  3. Baron von Monckhofen23 September 2009 06:14

    Speaking of computers, the evil Pokemon cult is promoted through small hand-held computers. This evil conspiracy by Imperialistic Communistic Animistic Japan must be stopped!

    And it cannot be pointed out too often that the mythomaniac Al Gore invented the so-called Internet that connects computers all over the world in order to enslave us all with his mind control program.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Inferno

    I was asked to do some modelling by a man at Kings Cross railway stat5ion who said he was a fashion photograper but when I got to this room he took me to it was horrid and he told me to take my cloths off but now I think he was a foney. Also he had a red hat like the one you mention and red boxers.

    HTH

    Summer x

    ReplyDelete
  5. Can any of the scientists on this blog comment on the practicality of producing climate models in plasticene or LEGO® format?

    I feel this would lay bare the mysticism of computing-based religious models and attract the interest of children and young people, thus helping make them immune to pseudo-scientific warmist mumbo-jumbo in later life.

    I know I'd buy the Airfix Radiative Forcing model as soon as it was released, especially if it included decent crew figures.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I may have mentioned this before but the point remains that that a miniscule increase in the concentration of a trace gas is simply incapable of raising global temperatures, so the CO2 = AGW paradigm has been thoroughly falsified, also the IPCC is made up of political appointees, and that temperatures have fallen even as CO2 rises.

    Of course the ENTIRE alarmist scare is based on the output from these fantasy models, so how realistic was the output from Hansen's 1988 compared to the reality?, well the numbers don't lie ... click

    Yep, Hansen was WAY off-base, according to the respected scientific author Michael Crichton, he overestimated the actual change by 300%. Remember Hansen is the Father of Climate Modelling, if he can't even get close then its the last nail in the coffin, the entire case collapses - YOU GOT NUTHIN! GAME OVER!

    ReplyDelete
  7. The chaos problem has been overcome on the most powerful modern computing platform, i. e. Emacs, with the `M-x butterfly C-M-c' command. All climate models must be rewritten in Elisp.

    http://xkcd.com/378/
    http://www.gnu.org/software/emacs/NEWS.23.1

    cm

    ReplyDelete
  8. Baron von Monckhofen24 September 2009 07:52

    Let us not forget Gödel's incompleteness theorem, which states that mathematical theories cannot answer any questions. To put it in plain terms, mathematical computer simulations of something as complex as the climate are absolute junk (remember that a computer is just an overgrown pocket calculator) and Al Gore is a big fat fraud.

    Galilieo didn't have any fancy computers or did any models, and still he revolutionized scientific thinking, and threw the "flat earth" paradigm on the dust heap of science.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Smokey,

    You have the makings of a blog scientist ( making of graphs, not making of citations) but still have much to learn. While you have shown that CO2 does not warm the earth much, try your plot using the technique of our fearless leader, with a nonhorizontal baseline. This will prove that CO2 cools the earth and that the ICE AGE is imminent! We must burn more carbon to warm the earth with CO2.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Looks like that warmist, Tim Swanson, has gone off to lick his wounds.

    ReplyDelete
  11. It'll just be temporary.

    They're probably all currently round at Algore's house devisng new ad homs in preparation for Lordy Lord Monkerton's Canadian tour.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I'm glad to see a genuine blog scientist unveil the evil that is Linux. I'm afraid it is even worse than you suggest. Marxists are not only Godless, but are worshippers of Satan. This becomes apparent when you understand that Linux and other Unix variants deploy hordes of daemons, and that files meant to be readable and writable by all are denoted by the permissions code "666"!

    Why aren't more people aware of this? Well, the fiendish Satanists of the Unix world have invented a diversion to help keep secret the devilish nature of Linux.

    It's called FreeBSD. Just look at its logo! As you can see, this is a plot by Satanist Marxist One World Operating System Linuxofascists to convince people not fortunate enough to be blog computer scientists that FreeBSD, not Linux, is the devil's own tool.

    Don't be fooled!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Baron von Monckhofen25 September 2009 10:26

    dhogaza,

    They even got something they call a "Bible", but it is obviously not the Holy Book. What a terrible blasphemy. But that clearly proves that AGW is a religion!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Ah, you guys are very funny. Ha-ha. Let's plug a coincidental correlation between CO2 and temperatures from 1979-1999 into a computer model and pretend a trace component of our atmosphere has some noticable effect on our surface temperature. It worked so well, I don't blame you for sticking with it, but it doesn't take much thought about conduction, convection and radiation to realize how silly is the rationale. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Wrinkled Retainer27 September 2009 09:05

    Anonymous,

    Did you post to the wrong site? You must know that we at DD agree that a miniscule 0.038% of CO2 cannot possibly make any difference, but if it does, then it's a GOOD thing because most of us like to be warmer and it's also GOOD because more CO2 means more crops!

    ReplyDelete
  16. Also it's probably the crops themselves that have raised co2 0.038%

    ReplyDelete
  17. Just checking in to see if your "demands" have been met by the IPCC there Infernerator. Haven't seen any "youtube takedowns" yet.

    And no wounds to lick anonymous, although I will admit to a splitting headache.

    ReplyDelete
  18. First and second 'reasons why climate cannot be modeled' are no reasons.
    Probably climate was mixed up with weather again.
    Climate is about statistical aggregration. What this means will be understood when one tries Heisenberg's relations on macroscopic objects! I will retreat this post as soon as someone shows me a golf ball tunneling through my front door.

    Third reason is a pure no-brainer. It is an invitation to quit all research into anything, because anything is quite complex beyond face level. Quantum-complex (yes, we can use 'reason' 2 to demerit 'reason' 3!).

    RR.

    ReplyDelete
  19. These will lead to better computing. The latest technology will prove to be a better initiative for better world.

    ReplyDelete
  20. If we stuck with just 1's and eliminated the 0's then we could save 50% energy

    ReplyDelete
  21. I was not aware the scientists supporting climate models were this computer illiterate, thanks for proving my point.

    Get back to me when you get an undergraduate degree in computer science and can make it in the private sector as a programmer.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I loved reading this. Fantastic! The 'socialism / linux' stuff was the best. Having read a few of the comments, it seems a few people didn't get your jokes, though.

    ReplyDelete
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